Friday, August 22, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s been something of a tough week on the punt but we’re getting to the pointy end of proceedings now & I’m very keen to kick what should be a sensational weekend off on a winning note. If I could have one decent crack tonight it would probably be on the Quads but I’ve also found a Best Bet to kick off the programme and two Money Races to boot.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Valley Of Diamonds (Race 1 no. 9) $2.70
This guy has always shown ability and his recent efforts through the Vicbred Super Series along with his last start triumph would indicate to me that he’s racing in the zone, so I’m happy to back him at 6 to 4 or better.

The Money Races
Race 2 (Flexi Trifectas for $60)
The scratching of Keayang Ebonyrose has made this race a beaut punting proposition as the two best horses engaged would now appear to have gates 1 & 8 w/ a huge chance of being leader/behind leader in transit. If everything pans out to plan early on this could be a very profitable race for us, particularly if Ricks Shadow (9) can poke through in the pegs and snare the bronze medal role.

1,9/ 1,9/ 3,6,7,10. $45 gets 562.5%
1,9/ 3,6,7/ 1,9. $15 gets 250%

Race 4 (Flexi Trifectas for $60)
Francisco De Gore (2) & Iceobar (5) are both horses w/ very bright futures and they should fight this race out if they’re not racing on tired legs while quick beginner Pompidou (1) is a clear third pick.

2,5/ 1,2,5/ 1,2,5. $40 gets 1000%
2,5/ 1,2,5/ 6,8. $20 gets 250%

The Quads (x4 for $180)
5/ 4,6,9/ 4,11/ 3. $39 gets 650%
1,9,12/ 4,6,9/ 4,11/ 3. $36 gets 200%
5/ 4,6,9/ 4,11/ 1,6,7,8,11. $60 gets 200%
1,9,12/ 4,6,9/ 4,11/ 1,6,7,8,11. $45 gets 50%

 

Good Form Preview - Friday @ Maryborough

The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($30 win)
Majestic Ess Jay (Race 1 No.10)
This guy is in terrific form winning his last two starts from vastly different barriers but both in very handy style. His latest, albeit in slower time, was in good class against Mia Mosca and Im Havinaball and if he were to reproduce that effort, he would be one of only three winning chances but most importantly, the leading hope even from his 20-metre mark.

Monica My Dear (Race 3 No.11)
Although she may have paced and broke last time and have the second row draw, she just looks to have too much class on her rivals today. She ran second to Bella Cheval and Steal A Sixpence earlier this campaign and if she returns to her usual self, she should simply outclass her rivals.

Rostevarren (Race 4 No.2)
He has long been a super talented trotter who continues to compete just below the top level in Victoria. His last two have been outstanding and given he should find the front – and hold
it – he will be mighty hard to run down.

Snack Beast (Race 8 No.2)
This guy was unlucky galloping due to a check last start. He was however favourite in that race when first up and this looks no harder so provided there are no early disasters here, he should find the front and be too good for his rivals.

Best Value ($5 win x $15 place)
Truman (Race 7 No.11) $10
While he is first-up, he mixed with this grade of horse last preparation and even though he has almost had a year off, he did trial at Menangle about a month ago and he was beaten less than 10 metres in a 1:55 mile rate so if he brings that sort of form, he may well blow them away at big odds.

Quaddies (x3 worth $100)
9,10/6/1,6,9,11,12/1,2,3,6. $40 gets 100%
9,10/1,7,8,9,10/1,6,9,11,12/1,2,3,6. $40 gets 20%
1,2,11/6/1,6,9,11,12/1,2,3,6. $20 gets 33.33%

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Mildura

The Game Plan for Mildura – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Value ($15 win x $20 place)
Yankidoodledanvers (Race 3 No.1) $7
This guy is still relatively new to the Sunraysia and his first start at the track he was forced to sit parked from the second row but was valiant when running third to Macray Soiree (2) there. The fact he should enjoy a lovely soft run behind the likely leader Gnarly (5) gives me great confidence that if the gap appears, he is ready to take it.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $10 place)
Rollon Fake Red (Race 1 No.8) $101
There is certainly no need to get too excited here but this is a pretty even race and with no real standouts, this guy may be worth a punt. He has been pretty consistent if relatively well-beaten this preparation but things didn’t work out for him last start and if he settle better tonight, he could sneak into a place at monster odds.

The Money Race
Race 4 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
This is a really interesting race because Paint The Hammer (4) had no luck first up in the Sunraysia then was involved in a no race Swan Hill and he really does look a progressive horse who is suited to the area. That said it’s a pretty wide open affair behind him so we are going to play for luck with three trifectas to try and make some coin.

4/1,2,5,9,10/1,2,5,9,10. $30 gets 150%
1,2,5,9,10/4/1,2,5,9,10. $15 gets 75%
1,2,5,9,10/1,2,5,9,10/4. $5 gets 25%

Race 8 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
If punters are looking for a skinny way home then this is probably it. Intransit (3) hasn’t had things pan out in his last two but he should be able to bully his way to the top here and he was building an imposing record prior to his last two. With Hayabusa Flyer (1) almost certain to get the gun trail, the trifecta looks pretty simple with Illawong Lively (2) the other key hope.

3/1/2,4,8. $30 gets 1000%
3/2/1,4,8. $10 gets 333%

Quaddies (x3 worth $100)
1,2,9/5,6/1,7/3. $60 gets 500%
1,2,9/5,6/1,7/1,2,4,8. $20 gets 41.66%
3,5,6/5,6/1,7/3. $20 gets 166.67%

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
If the Breeders Crown series can be equated to an Olympic marathon it now seems we’ve entered the stadium with the first of three almost-consecutive Tabcorp Park meetings to be conducted today. There are only seven races to be decided but there’s plenty of value to be had plus 1 Money Race and some Quads.

Best Bet ($40 Win)
Jackabeems (Race 7 no. 4) $3.80
I’ve always had a big opinion of this guy and his run in  a heat of this year’s ABC series behind Bit Of A legend last Sunday was huge. I expect he’ll lob somewhere handy & just prove too classy for this lot on his way to bigger and better things potentially next term.

Best Value ($20 Each Way)
Resurgent Spirit (Race 6 no. 9) $26
I had to look three or four times when I saw this guy was $26 in today’s Herald Sun. He’s a winner of 15 races back home & probably produced the best run of any horse who didn’t qualify for the 3YO boys’ final last weekend. This is a wide open race but he shouldn’t be close to $26 and he’s my on-top selection here today.

Best Roughies ($10 Each Way)
Coimadai Lodge (Race 2 no. 2) $17
This is another cheeky value tip. I know there are only seven horses engaged & that negates our chance to make some cabbage her but I just had to throw this bloke in as he’s racing in great heart and in a race where plenty of them have tricks he just will not let you down.

Cool Machrista (Race 5 no. 7) $21
This girl will have her work cut out to beat Glenferrie Shuffle (6) here but she did run a better race than that mare at this course last weekend & is worth a little tickle @ the massive odds.

The Money Race ($60 Flexi First 4’s)
Race 3
The four big guns have a mortgage on this race & if they comprise the first four horses’ home & Rocknroll Arden (4) doesn’t win we should get some sort of result.

1,2,4,7/1,2,4,7/1,2,4,7/1,2,3,4,7. $60 gets 125%


The Quads (x4 for $110)
5/ 6/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,9/ 4. $26 gets 371.43%
5/ 6/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,9/ 1,2,3,8,9. $35 gets 100%
5/ 1,7,11,13/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,9/ 4. $28 gets 100%
2,3,8/ 6/ 1,2,4,6,7,8,9/ 4. $21 gets 100%

 

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ Terang

The Game Plan for Terang – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($40 Win All Up)
Young Modern (Race 7 No.5) $1.90
This guy elected not to go forward in a strong race at Melton a couple of weeks ago but there was a speedy beginner in Diamond Ace there and he just kept running. I can see things panning out differently here and while doesn’t fly the arm, I can see Young Modern working forward and claiming the front mid-race and from there, he will be almost impossible to beat.

Promising Edition (Race 8 No.10) $2.50
This does look a genuine match-race and although his win was in arguably lesser grade two starts ago, the form is standing up well with Altugo Franco running well since. He probably had to work a fraction hard to find the lead last time and that took its toll late but his run was still really solid so even though he has the backline draw, his major danger Keayang Storm (11) won’t have it any easier.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $15 place)
Iwishitwereme (Race 6 No.4) $10
After finishing ninth of 10 on debut, punters may be willing to ignore this guy today stepping up in grade but I’m willing to take the punt that the is pretty handy. He was slowly away from the second line on debut and although he got back in the run, he never saw daylight up the home straight. If he had have got the splits he looked ready to explode so he is impossible to ignore at the odds.

The Money Races
Race 4 ($50 worth of Flexi First Fours)
Upanatom (1) has good gate speed to lead and has been terrifically well placed all preparation so if Cute Art (2) can drop in, or even if that horse can't, he appears one of only two dangers that include Dagati Image (8) with the soft pegline run. For that reason we are playing two first four's here.

1/2,8/2,8/3,6,7. $36 gets 600%
1/2,8/3,6,7/2,8. $14 gets 233%

Race 7 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
We will already be relying on Young Modern (5) to win for our all-up but there looks an opportunity to capitalise on a pretty skinny race with two trifectas anchoring either the best bet or Flaming Hero (6) to win and the other to run a placing with the other key chances Jaccka Lonny (8) and Jilliby Master (9).

5,6/5,6/8,9. $32 gets 800%
5,6/8,9/5,6. $8 gets 200%

Quaddies (x4 worth $100)
8/4,11/5,6/10,11. $40 gets 500%
3,10,11/4,11/5,6/10,11. $24 gets 100%
8/2,7,8,12/5,6/10,11. $18 gets 112.5%
8/4,11/2,8,9/10,11. $18 gets 150%