Thursday, July 24, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($30 Win)
Four Lillies (Race 1 No.8) $2.80
This girl may well be drawn awkwardly on the inside of the second row here but the offset to that is that I think she is pretty classy and not only was she a top class 2YO, she has returned to smash her rivals in a heat of the Vicbred Super Series before running well in the final behind Claudys Princess. I expect her to be getting off the pegs early and class really should tell late.

Sir Jaybe Hall (Race 6 No.6) $2.40
This guy quickly developed early this preparation to ascend to the heights of defeating Musical Delight and just being edged out by Hes Kinky and he hasn’t had a lot of luck recently. He is suited by the stand and has a really good record behind the tapes so don’t worry about the 10-metre mark and on form he is clearly the horse to beat.

Kensington Palace (Race 8 No.8) $3.80
I must admit to loving this mare but make no mistake, this is a good drop in class on her recent efforts and provided things work out early, she is going to be hard to beat. Tara Tom (1) should have the speed to lead and if Kensington Palace (8) ends up behind him, I expect her to outsprint them in the straight.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Shares Down (Race 2 No.2) $6
While this is on a bit of a wing and a prayer, I’m willing to take the risk, at the price, that this guy could be relatively handy. He was well supported on debut and is a 5YO so connections have persisted with him. Add to that the fact the winner got away from her rivals there, but he ran home strongly when clear along the pegline. If he improves, this race isn’t much harder so he is worth an each way punt.

Majorama (Race 7 Number 6) $6.50
This fella has had four runs since crossing over from Tasmania and there has been merit in every single effort. There’s no doubt this is a little rise in class but he is a pretty tough customer and can do it tough if necessary, so again while we won’t be breaking the bank, he is worthy of an each-way wager at nice odds.

Best Roughie ($10 win x $20 place)
Ole Sun (Race 4 No.1) $10
If we can get $10 about this customer it will be terrific shopping because while he is a veteran of just four starts, I’m confident he is going places. To be fair he has had some troubles in his gait in the past but last time he put it all together and was a cosy winner at Kilmore. I’ve got no doubt Bellmac Kody is the horse to beat all things being equal, but it’s simply impossible to ignore this guy on an each way basis.

Quaddies (x4 worth $140)
10/1,5,6,8/2,3,6/8. $48 gets 400%
10/1,5,6,8/2,3,6/1,7,9. $36 gets 100%
10/1,5,6,8/1,4,5,10/8. $20 gets 100%
4,7,11/1,5,6,8/2,3,6/8. $36 gets 100%

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Charlton

The Game Plan for Charlton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bet ($30 Win)
Jackabeems (Race 6 No.1) $5
This looks a race in three at most but I’m confident there are only two serious winning chances. Given Jackabeems (1) is at terrific value, he is worthy of having something on. He was terrific when working mid-race at Horsham last time before toughing it out late so if he can hold them wide early, or even if he ends up behind the leader, then he is going to run one almighty race.

Salute The Wind (Race 8 No.13) $4.80
This guy is dropping viciously in class coming off a 12-metre defeat behind Illawong Magic at Melton a couple of weeks ago. He was shuffled back on the pegs there but was good late and provided he steps OK, which can be an issue, he rates as the clear elect and one of the best bets on the program.

Best Roughie ($10 win x $20 place)
Ruby Slippers (Race 5 No.1) $12
If punters are keen on just one wager for the program then I’d suggest this is the one. I’m supremely confident this mare will run a massive race at good odds. Things just haven’t worked out for her in recent times with a few poor barriers and unlucky efforts but back to the pole, she has the speed to hold them as the arms fold back and from there she has options. If we see $12 about her then that is terrific shopping on an each way basis.

The Money Races
Race 1 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Real Character (5) will likely start in the red and while we probably can’t make any money from him by backing him straight out, Solace (1) looks almost as good a thing to run either second or third from his gun alley while Arthur Henry (6) and Usage (8) look like the only other place hopes so we will play the following three combinations.

5/1/6,8. $25 gets 1250%
5/6,8/1. $15 gets 750%
5/6,8/6,8. $10 gets 500%

Race 6 ($50 Flexi First Four)
As mentioned, Jackabeems (1) is one of two key chances along with Beachstar (4) so while we will be content to get our best bet home, there is also an opportunity to boost our dividend with skinny first four.

1,4/1,4/3,4,6/3,4,6. $50 gets 416.67%

Quaddies (x4 worth $100)
1,3/1,4/1,2,5,8/13. $32 gets 400%
2,5,6,8/1,4/1,2,5,8/13. $24 gets 75%
1,3/1,4/1,2,5,8/5,6,7,8,10,11. $26 gets 27.08%
2,5,6,8/1,4/1,2,5,8/5,6,7,8,10,11. $18 gets 9.3%

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ Echuca

The Game Plan for Echuca – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
We’ve snuck by without sustaining too much danger so far this week but it has been a very tricky few days on the punt & it doesn’t get any easier tonight. I’ve played some early Money races so we can assess exactly what’s left in the kitty prior to the Quad.

The Money Races
Race 3
As mentioned above I think Whisper Away (8) will be too good here and I’m confident her major threat is Jet To Paris (6). Both are drawn poorly but I expect some good early speed here and if we get it they should be dropping on their rivals at the right time here tonight.

8/ 6/ 1,2,3,4. $40 gets 1000%
8/ 1,2,3,4/ 6. $20 gets 500%
6/ 8/ 1,2,3,4. $20 gets 500%

Race 4
In what seriously looks to be a three-horse race I just think the combination of a gun draw and Nathan Jack should tip the scales in the favour of Three Dee Delight (1). If he win and ultimately shares the dais with Dreamtime Spirit (6) & Real Knucky (7) that should mean a pretty decent result for us.

1/ 6,7/ 6,7. $40 gets 2000%
6,7/ 1/ 6,7. $20 gets 1000%
1/ 6,7/ 2,5. $20 gets 500%
6,7/ 1/ 2,5. $10 gets 250%

The Quads (x3 for $130)
Field/ 3,8/ 2,9,11,12/ 4,5,6,8,9. $80 gets 33.33%
Field/ 3,8/ 3,5,8,10/ 4,5,6,8,9. $40 gets 16.67%
Field/ 2/ 2,9,11,12/ 4,5,6,8,9. $10 gets 8.33%

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($50 All-Up)
Melita Bromac (Race 2 No.4) $1.50
This girl is probably too short to have a straight out wager on but in saying that, I think she can give us a good boost through a 2-leg all up. She has been taking on the absolute cream of the 3YO filly crop and every single time she has taken a little step back in grade, she has thrashed her rivals. That was the case last start with a brilliant win at Geelong so I’m expecting her to fire to the front here and give nothing else a chance.

Mojo Major (Race 4 No.7) $2.10
This fella may well have been defeated as an odds-on pop last time but don’t let that deter you. He was beaten only by Glenferrie Blade last time, who not only had the sit on his back mid-race, but also looks pretty handy himself. They gapped the rest of their rivals so the form should stack up well and even from the outside barrier, he looks the horse to beat and one of the best of the day.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
The System Black (Race 7 No.9) $8.50
This filly had to work pretty hard midrace to find the top last time and while she did drop out there, I’m willing to put a line on that run and go on her previous form which included a third behind My Bella Starr in a Vicbred Super series heat. She was also a good winner in a similar race to this five starts back when hitting the line hard at this track so at the odds, she looks a decent each way play today.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $20 place)
Courageous Kiwi (Race 3 No.3) $17
This guy drew outside Maywyns Storm (5) last time and wasn’t really asked to cross him at the start but he does have good early toe and I would be shocked if he wasn’t first to the pegs here. From that position he should enjoy a lovely run whether he leads or hands up. First up in Victoria he has little luck in between horses and last time he was forced to breeze so that run can be forgiven and while we won’t be breaking the bank, he is worth a punt.

The Money Races
Race 7 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)
Crazy Dave (1) is in rare form and despite there being a fair bit of early speed engaged here, I can see him holding a forward enough position in the run to have every chance late and while this is a little rise in grade, he is going terrifically well at the moment. Eye Like Candy (5) and Discrimination (8) to a lesser extent look the most serious threats so we will play the following three trifectas with the aim of snagging a decent dividend.

1/5/2,3,8. $20 gets 666.67%
1/8/2,3,5. $12 gets 400%
5,8/1/2,3,5,8. $8 gets 133%

Quaddies (x3 worth $110)
7/1,4/1,5,8/4,6,7,9. $50 gets 208.33%
7/3,5,7/1,5,8/4,6,7,9. $36 gets 100%
2,5,6,9/1,4/1,5,8/4,6,7,9. $24 gets 25%

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night @ Terang

The Game Plan for Terang – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
The order of the night looks to be very few best but making them aggressive given the lack of wagering options in the Western Districts tonight. I’m playing with my heart as much as my head with the evening’s Best Bet as I’ve got a big opinion of Hurricane Stride while the Best Value option should at least run a drum. The other two key wagers are a mid-meeting Money race and a host of Quads.

Best Bet ($100 Win)
Hurricane Stride (Race 4 no. 5) $1.80
I’m not usually that big on smashing races where three runners have had one start or less as the variables are just too great but I’ll make an exception her because the above pacer has much more than his fair share of ability and has also trialled very well in recent weeks at Cranbourne. Based on class alone he should be too good.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Solarsonic (Race 1 no. 3) $7.50
This bloke’s taking on some pretty handy horses at only his second start including Cossack Stride (6) & Princess Asha (9) but he was only just outstayed by another super smart one in Thebackpagescribe & given he’ll find the pegs first again here the $7.50 looks very juicy indeed.

The Money Race – Race 5 (Flexi Trifectas for $80)
Jilliby Master (2) is the class factor here and really should win if all things go to plan but he is facing a couple of pretty good one tonight and probably won’t get things all his own way. Whether he’s good enough to win or only runs into second the key to a big collect may be Forced Out (5) joining him on the podium.

2/ 1,5,7/ 1,5,7. $60 gets 1000%
1,5,7/ 2/ 1,5,7. $20 gets 333.33%

The Quads (x4 for $120)
2/ 1,5,8,9/ 2,4,7/ 6. $54 gets 450%
2/ 3,4,7,11/ 2,4,7/ 6. $18 gets 150%
1,5,7/ 1,5,8,9/ 2,4,7/ 6. $36 gets 100%
1,5,7/ 3,4,7,11/ 2,4,7/ 6. $12 gets 33.33%