Saturday, August 2, 2014

Good Form Preview - Saturday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Tabcorp Park – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
These once-a-month Saturday night Melton meetings are now becoming tradition & this card is a cracker, w/ three feature races and a pretty tempting support programme to boot. I could have found four or five ‘Best Bets’ but I’ve opted to tackle only the two who I cannot see possibly going under. From there I’ve been keener than usual to find some Value runners w/ TAB giving us Fixed Odds betting on two of the three feature races. Add to that haul a couple of Money Races & a dig @ the Early Quad & suddenly we’re invested in 8 of the 10 races up for decision.

Best Bets ($100 All-Up)
Smudge Bromac (Race 3 no. 7) $1.80
This bloke was beaten fair & square in similar race to this one last time out but there are no Our Eastwood Cullen’s drawn inside him tonight & I just think he’ll roll forward, sit parked or lead and prove too strong in either role tonight.

Keayang Cullen (Race 4 no. 6) $1.40
It’s half tempting to think that this guy’s run of FFA successes will soon come to an end but the reality is that’s not likely to happen. Plus he has every conceivable condition (front line draw, short course trip, etc) to suit tonight so it would come as a massive shock if he didn’t lead & win.

Best Value ($10 Win $30 Place)
Stoned I Am (Race 5 no. 7) $16/$3.30 TAB Fixed Odds
The very fact that My High Expectations (10) has drawn the second row here should ensure that the tempo is genuine throughout and if it is then the above sit-sprinter will be storming home ominously when it matters most. I marked him $9 for tonight’s affair so the $16 w/ TAB is too good to ignore & I strongly encourage you to take him 1 x 3.

Beauty Secret (Race 7 no. 7) $10/$2.63 TAB Fixed Odds
This gun mare has been a good thing beaten in two of her past three starts, both timewhen driven cold and storming home from well back, so on face value the wide front line draw won’t be any great imposition tonight. I marked her @ $6 in a race with half-a-dozen almost equal winning hopes so the double figure quote is good enough for me. 

Metro Mike (Race 7 no. 6) $12/$3 TAB Fixed Odds
He is a stablemate of Beauty Secret (7) who was sort of forced into an unfamiliar role when leading in a heat of this race last weekend but for mine, he’s always been better when driven with a sit and that’s how he’ll be steered from the draw tonight. At his best, he has a super turn of foot and again, the TAB have marked him $12 against my $7.50 & that’s tempting enough for me.

The Money Races
Race 3 ($60 Flexi First 4’s)
I’m very bullish about Smudge Bromac (7) being too good here and the general theme in these Claiming affairs is the class will rise to the top so I’m ignoring the well drawn  $10K to $25K Claimers in preference for those requiring $30K and above when picking those likely to fill up the dais.

7/ 4,8,9,10/ 4,8,9,10/ 4,8,9,10. $24 gets 100%
7/ 4,8,9,10/ 4,8,9,10/ Field. $36 gets 50%

Race 10 ($60 Flexi Trifectas)
Kiss Kenny (4) would appear to have something of a mortgage on this race as he’s a 90% chance of pinging to the front & never getting headed from there. The only little threat to his dominance might be Missanger Management (1) if she holds the leaders back and if she doesn’t upset the fave she should still fill a hole.

4/ 1/ 2,3,7,8. $40 gets 1000%
4/ 2,3,7,8/ 1. $10 gets 250%
1/ 4/ 2,3,7,8. $10 gets 250%

The Early Quads (x4 for $130)
2/ 1,3,5,8,9,10/ 7/ 6. $48 gets 800%
1,8,12/ 1,3,5,8,9,10/ 7/6. $72 gets 400%
2/ 4,7/ 7/ 6. $4 gets 200%
1,8,12/ 4,7/ 7/ 6. $6 gets 100%
To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Quarter – Beauty Secret: 27.37ecs
Fastest Last Half – Ginger Bliss: 54.78secs
Fastest Last Mile – Remember Joe: 1:54.77
Sectional Superstar
Quite A Moment (Race 4 no.1) – $6 TAB Fixed Odds
Not only was this mare visually stunning in the Lightfoot Laurels, she smashed her rivals on the clock with a blistering last quarter of 28.28sec. That was off the back of waiting for the sprint lane to appear from three pegs. She is likely to end up behind the leader tonight and from that position, she will be hard to hold out late.
TABCORP Park Trainer Talk
Craig Demmler
Best Chance
Glenferrie Tyhpoon (Race 1 No.2) $2
"I was really happy with him first up. He let go with a pretty quick third quarter and sustained that to the line.
"We gave him a bit of a let up with the idea of getting to the Breeders Crown a little fresher and it seems to have worked. He should push forward after they step and be in it for  along way."
Essbee Doubleyou (Race 2 No.5) $3.50
"He was probably just beaten by a better horse last time but we were still pleased with the way he went. He has kept improving since he has come to the stable and while there is some speed drawn inside him, i'd expect him to come off the arm and hopefully find the front.
"This race doesn't look any harder so he should run well again."
Sunset Invasion (Race 5 No.5) $5
"Jodi isn't sure whether or not he can find the top with so much speed inside him, he may have to slot in at some stage but there is also a chance he could cross them after the start.
"This is his first really big test but he has trialled well at Bacchus Marsh recently and if he can measure up here we will know we've got a pretty nice horse on out hands."
Glenferrie EJ (Race 6 No.9) $6
"I really didn't know what to make of her first up run because while she has always had a few issues she still went pretty rough and we think she's better than that.
"After the run she pulled up with a little cold but she's completely over that now so hopefully if she returns to her absolute best she would be competitive tonight."
Our Eastwood Cullen (Race 8 No.3) $2.80
"We like to call him the ATM machine at the minute, he just keeps racking up wins.
"He has the early speed to go forward at the start and if he can find the front he would be a good chance.
"There just wasn't the right claimer this week so we've decided to have a go at the M1 and see if we can't pinch one while he is in good form."



Speed Maps

Friday, August 1, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ Ballarat

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I don’t know exactly why but I’m mad keen for a punt tonight (even more than normal) so I’ve gone a little hog-wild w/ this Game Plan which will see us outlay $490 across the eight race card. Followers should probably be somewhat aware that our Best Bets & Quaddie are virtually the same wager because both will rely on 2 of our 3 Best Bets getting home so if you’re keen to play a little less aggressively than me, maybe dump either the Formula 2 or the normal Quads.

Best Bets/ Formula 2 ($60 gets 20 units)

Glenferrie Dreamer (Race 5 no. 6) $2.20

This bloke has been crying out to win a race in recent weeks but unfortunately the strength of his opposition has made things hard. He finally finds himself in a suitable race here and I just think the race is his to lose.

Must Be Nice (Race 6 no. 2) $2

I could not have been more impressed with this guy’s last couple of wins and given I think he’s well on his way to Metropolitan success tonight’s race should be just another stepping stone for him.

Faraway Man (Race 8 no. 2) $2

This guy showed what he can do with a front line draw last start and if he’s quick enough to cross the polemarker early on it’s really hard to see how they’d ever run him down.

The Money Races

Race 4

Rule Of Thumb (1) and Forest Verdi (8) look to have something pretty significant on their rivals here although Juliustigres (2) could give some cheek if he gets an easy lead.

1,8/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,5,7,8. $60 gets 500%

1,8/ 5,7/ 1,2,5,7,8. $30 gets 250%

Race 6

Must Be Nice (2) is low flying at the minute & I’m happy to have all my eggs in his basket while only excluding Takeiteasyonme (4) from my multiple wagers.

2/ 1,3/ 1,3,6,7/ 1,3,6,7. $30 gets 250%

2/ 6,7/ 1,3,6,7/ 1,3,6,7. $20 gets 166.67%

Race 8

The start will be crucial here but if Faraway Man (2) leads & One Wise Man (1) trails him they should really dominate this race.

2/ 1/ Field/ Field. $40 gets 200%

2/ Field/ 1/ Field. $10 gets 50%

The EARLY Quads (x4 for $100)

5,10/ 3,4,6,11/ 2/1,8. $48 gets 300%

1,2,8,11,12/ 3,4,6,11/ 2/ 1,8. $30 gets 75%

5,10/ 3,4,6,11/ 5/ 1,8. $12 gets 75%

1,2,8,11,12/ 3,4,6,11/ 5/ 1,8. $10 gets 25%

The Quads (x4 for $140)

6/ 2/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,8/ 2. $35 gets 500%

6/ 2/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,8/ 1,5. $28 gets 200%

6/ 1,3,6,7/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,8/ 2. $56 gets 200%

3,11,13/ 2/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,8/ 2. $21 gets 100%


Good Form Preview - Friday @ Mildura

The Game Plan for Mildura – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bet ($50 win)
Vivant (Race 4 No.4) $3
Although this guy was beaten as favourite last time, there were a couple of excuses given he raced erratically and roughly on occasion. I’m banking on the fact that he simply wasn’t a happy horse on that day and if we go back to his previous start in the Sunraysia he smashed his rivals by over 10 metres. This isn’t an overly strong race so if he can bully his way to the top, they will have trouble running him down.

The Money Races
Race 1 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Buddonit (1) has been narrowly beaten at each of his past four however he really deserves a win and this does looks his race from the perfect barrier. Although Faenza (7) may not start second favourite, I think he is going a lot better than the form suggests and while we will bank on him to be behind the leader and favourite, he can throw some value into the trifectas. Manwarra Payroll (4) and Rattlenhum (5) are the only other place chances so we are playing the following combinations.
1/7/4,5. $20 gets 1000% 1/7/2,3. $12 gets 600%
1/4,5/7. $10 gets 500%
1/4,5/4,5. $8 gets 400%
Race 2 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Boltenin (5) is another horse racking up the placings who I’m confident can breakthrough today and if the speed map works out to plan, Dream Always (1) will take a sit on him and be the leading place contender.  We will also play a little wider with Anarion (2) and Roll On Fake Red (7) to run somewhere in the money.

5/1/2,7. $22 gets 1100%
5/2,7/1,2,7. $12 gets 300%
1,2,7/5/1,2,7. $6 gets 100%
Race 6 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
We are again banking on the speed map lobbing here with Lis Mara Shadow (2) likely to cross Mcardles Art (1) early. From there we will be hoping they roll home in that order with plenty of chances including Superstar Xpress (3), Soho Jagger (4), Hayabusa Flyer (5) and Indigo Smile (7) for third.
2/1/3,4,5,7. $28 gets 700%
2/3,4,5,7/1. $12 gets 300%
2/3,4,5,7/3,4,5,7. $10 gets 83.33%
Quaddies (x4 worth $110)
4/5/2/10. $45 gets 4500%
4/5/1,3,4,5,7/10. $25 gets 500%
4/3,4,6/2/10. $24 gets 800%
1,3,6,9/5/2/10. $16 gets 400%

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bet ($25 Each Way)
Pas Mate (Race 7 no. 3) $3.50

The Money Races
Race 1
7/ 1/ 2,3,5,6/ Filed. $34 gets 212.5%
7/ 2,3,5,6/ 1/ Field. $16 gets 100%

Race 5
3/ 1,6,8/ 1,6,8. $33 gets 550%
3/ 1,6,8/ 4,5. $12 gets 200%
1,6,8/ 3/ 1,6,8. $12 gets 200%
1,6,8/ 3/ 4,5. $3 gets 50%

The Quads (x4 for $140)
3,6/ 9/ 1,3,5,7/ 5. $40 gets 500%
3,6/ 9/ 1,3,5,7/ 4. $20 gets 250%
3,6/ 1,2,6/ 1,3,5,7/ 5. $60 gets 250%
1,8/ 9/ 1,3,5,7/ 5. $20 gets 250%

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Bendigo

The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($75 Win All Up)
Almihata (Race 1 No.5) $2.10
This girl may be a veteran of just three starts but she was rated highly enough to start favourite over Niki No No at her second start and she showed good speed following that in her heat of the Home Grown Classic. She has returned with a good third at the Melton trials recently and if she has improved at all off her first preparation, she should be winning this.

Royal Hustler (Race 3 No.7) $1.10
This fella broke when favourite to beat the promising Allies Mate last start and prior to that he was coming off a lot stronger form lines than he will meet here. He has the ability to bully his way forward here and either lead or breeze and from that position, only a similar disaster to his latest effort would see him beaten in an eminently winnable race.

Messini (Race 4 No.3) $1.20
Brent Lilley has a really super 3YO Colt here. Perhaps the best of his crop and he has gone some way to proving that with four slashing wins in Australia this preparation which include a Group 1 Vicbred Super Series win thanks to a lightning mid-race move to the breeze. He is just as adept in front and while Jilliby Jagger (6) is untapped and on the way up, I’d be shocked to see this guy go under tonight.

Hectorjayjay (Race 8 No.2) $1.20
Nothing went right for this guy in the Vicbred Super Series final however that can’t take away from the promise he showed leading up to that run. He has the early speed to get to the front early and from that position he would need only return to his previous form to be far too good for this field on the way to being a live chance in the Breeders Crown final.

Best Value ($25 Win)
Purple Village (Race 6 No.3) $3.60
This guy is first-up but was mixing it with horses like V C DEVIL and SUPALINER late in his last campaign and those horses would start pretty short in this sort of race and although it was six weeks ago, he was a solid trial winner at Echuca back on June 15. If he can cross the polemarker early, he should end up no worse than behind the leader and from there he will play a part late.

Best Roughies
King Rafa (Race 6 No.4) $26 ($5 Win x $20 Place)
If he can fly the arm, which he hasn’t had the opportunity to do a lot recently then I can see him running a much improved race. He has been back in the field pulling and reefing so if he does get things his own way in front, then he could be a serious threat at the odds.

Gazoline (Race 6 No.7) $21 ($10 Win x $20 Place)
In a typically tough trot race this is the horse who may well go around well over his true price. He was only first-up the other day but his effort to sit outside them and battle on strongly for fifth was impressive. He comes back to a 10-metre mark so he may even find the front in the early stages. He is by no means a certainty but he is no doubt a leading chance at odds.

The Money Race ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Race 8
We’ve mentioned why Hectorjayjay (2) is the best horse in the race but make no mistake Time Capsule (5) is pretty promising himself while the NSW invader Theartofconfusion (6) can’t be discounted along with the well-drawn A Bit Ruthless (1) for that reason we will play the following trifectas.

2/5/1,6. $20 gets 1000%
2/1,6/5. $10 gets 500%
2/5/3,4,7. $12 gets 400%
2/1,6/1,6. $8 gets 400%

Quaddies (x4 worth $120)
1,4,5,6/1,5,7,11/1,8/2. $48 gets 150%
1,4,5,6/3,8,9,10/1,8/2. $24 gets 75%
1,4,5,6/1,5,7,11/3,6,7,10/2. $32 gets 50%
1,4,5,6/3,8,9,10/3,6,7,10/2. $16 gets 25%