Good Form Friday - G-Town @ TP

The Game Plan for Melton

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

                         

Best Bets

Stuck In Second (Race 1 no. 1) ($3)

Led them up at Yarra Valley last time and was just collared in the shadows of the post by Cullen Regent to run a gallant second at the end of a 58.2 final half. 

That was his second run back from a break so he will be nearing his peak now and with the lead his from the pole expect this bloke to be extremely tough to run down.

Bettor Believe It (Race 3 no. 12) ($2.10)

Resumed from a break here three weeks ago where she ran a game second to the smart Pembrook Caesar after sitting in the breeze for the final circuit. 

She doesn’t draw the best but will be fitter, strikes a very winnable race and should be too good for her opposition with ordinary luck.

Amajorjo (Race 4 no. 7) ($1.60)

Was most impressive winning first up from a spell at Terang 11 days ago where he rated a solid 2:00.2 from the front end and slipped home in 57.6 to win as he liked. 

He is sure to be better for that outing, will be pushing forward from the wide alley and should take a power of beating with a repeat of his first up run.

Maybebaby (Race 6 no. 1) ($3)

Recorded brilliant time to beat The Kingston Flyer at Kilmore three back from this very draw after trailing the speed and using the passing lane to full advantage.

She looks like getting a similar trip tonight on the back of likely leader Zoomba and is sure to be mighty hard to hold out once she sees the sprint lane in the stretch.

Kotare Roland (Race 7 no. 1) ($2.20)

Comes off a C2/C3 series where he ran an excellent second to stable mate Charlie Machsheen in a heat at Geelong before dominating his rivals in the final here two weeks back. 

He faces some stiff opposition tonight but draws to lead and his rivals will have a devil of a time mowing him down the way he went last time.

Quaddies (x4)

7/ 5,7/ 1,2,9/ 1.  $35 gets you 583.33%

7/ 5,7/ 1,2,9/ 5,6,7,9.  $45 gets you 187.50%

2,4/ 5,7/ 1,2,9/ 1.  $10 gets you 83.33%

2,4/ 5,7/ 1,2,9/ 5,6,7,9.  $10 gets you 20.83%

Big6’s (x4)

12/ 7/ 5,7/ 1,2,9/ 1/ 3.  $35 gets you 583.33%

12/ 7/ 5,7/ 1,2,9/ 5,6,7,9/ 3.  $45 gets you 187.50%

12/ 2,4/ 5,7/ 1,2,9/ 1/ 3.  $10 gets you 83.33%

12/ 2,4/ 5,7/ 1,2,9/ 5,6,7,9/ 3.  $10 gets you 20.83%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bet

Maybebaby (Race 6 no. 1) ($3)

This girl turned in an absolute ripper on Kilmore Cup Day when leading early from the ace alley before handing the lead to The Kingston Flyer and then easily out-sprinting that guy in a 56.8-second final half. She can either lead or take the trail behind a suitable runner tonight and given The Kingston Flyer once again appeals as her major danger and this time he’ll be giving her a start, anything near flip of the coin seems excellent straight out value.

Best Roughie

Turnover (Race 3 no. 10) ($26)

This mare is much more talented than her one win from 34 starts would suggest. Two starts back she was very brave when taking ground off her major rival tonight in Bettor Believe It at this course then ran another top race when steaming home in a 27.6-second final split on Maryborough Cup Day. Even trainer John Justice says she’s flying so get involved on a 1 by 3 basis & you won’t be disappointed.

Best Trifectas

Race 4

Amajorjo should find the front with Eleventh Command on his back. They should dominate proceedings from there. Take these two tricks.

7/ 2/ 1,4,8,9. $40 gets 1000%.

7/ 1,4,8,9/ 2. $20 gets 500%.

Best First 4’s

Race 8

Pembrook Caesar ($1.30) just wins this & given how easily she’ll find the front in a race of little or no pressure, expect peg-line runners to dominate the placings. I’m playing like this.

3/ 2,10/ 1,2,8,9,10/ 1,2,8,9,10. $72 gets 300%.

2/ 1,8,9/ 1,2,8,9,10/ 1,2,8,9,10. $28 gets 77.78%.

Quaddies (x3)

7/ 7/ 1/ 1,5,6,7,9. $50 gets 1000%.

7/ 1,2,5,6,8,10,11,12/ 1/ 1,5,6,7,9. $40 gets 100%.

2,4/ 7/ 1/ 1,5,6,7,9. $10 gets 100%.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk

John Justice

Best Chance

Tyler Bromac (Race 5 no. 5)

“This guy actually pulled through his last run where he went really well so he’s had a bit of time between races and we’re very happy with him. He didn’t get it easy in that race last time (behind Kotare Roland) and he still went super so he can do a bit of work tonight and still sprint home really hard when it matters.”

Others

Turnover (Race 3 no. 10)

“She’s actually flying, she’d going really good but the draw just makes it a bit hard probably. She hasn’t drawn well in her last four or five starts but she’s going great and I expect her to run well again.”

Eleventh Command (Race 4 no. 2)

“She’s got very good gate speed and she’s in great form. She can’t do a lot of work in her races normally but if she gets the right sort of run she’d got a good sprint on her and the 1720m trip really does suit.”

Cape N Cutter (Race 6 no. 7)

“This guy should have won last start, he just went off stride on the turn and cost himself a winning chance. He was going half pace before that happened though so we’re hoping for a bit of a turnaround this weekend.”

Speed Maps – 16 November 2012

Race 1 – PACE OK IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

STUCK IN SECOND (1) is a quality beginner who should be able to hold the early lead with PROSPEROUS LOMBO (7) perhaps his only threat through the first 400m if Charlie Borg puts his foot to the floor. BRAEVIEW WARRIOR (9) is likely to make a mid-race move to find the breeze or lead the three-wide line through the final lap while OP HANDS DOWN (10) and co will be saved for one run at their rivals late.

Race 2 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

LORD DEVILLE (1), DEE TWO HUNDRED (2) and AMOS (4) can all begin well from the strands but expect AMOS (4) to work his way across the field through the early stages of the race. Probably the quickest beginner in the race is SANS FRONTIERE (12) so he should make up his 10m handicap pretty early and be in the firing line throughout while MISS KAI CHING (14) and ABBOTSHALL (15) should track each other into the race through the final lap.

Race 3 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGH FINAL LAP

VICTORIA MAY (1) is an excellent beginner from the mobile start who should be able to hold the lead if she so desires although DANCINWITHJODI (7) can also fly the arm & Rita Burnett may chance her arm from the outside-front-line draw. LIFESAVER LADY (4) is likely to go in search of the breeze4 once they settle down with BETTOR BELIEVE IT (12) favoured to attempt a long, sustained run three wide on the track through the last lap. Also note that CHESHIRE CAT (8) will get a favourable run if able to hold the leaders back early in the affair.

Race 4 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

There should be a good little battle for the early lead here between VEE JAY JAZZ (1) & ELEVENTH COMMAND (2) with ELEVENTH COMMAND (2) likely to win out before immediately handing up to class runner AMAJORJO (7) once she does. There is no genuine pressure horse engaged so expect a slowly run affair for a mile race with top end and peg-line runners dominating as a result.

Race 5 – SPEED OK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGH THE FINAL LAP

Not a great deal of speed off the front line here so it would be a shock if OVERTHORNS (1) were crossed in the early part of the race. That should leave OBAMA (8) with the gun ruin behind the speed. In New Zealand IM CORZIN TERROR (7) was not a gate speed horse but expect Alford to balance him up and go in search of a forward position through the early/mid stages off the race. TALULAHS BOY (11) likes things tough so should be prominent in the three-wide line with ASHIRA BROMAC (10) and LOMBO RANMILES (12) needing plenty of speed on to be factors late.

Race 6 – PACE OK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGH THE FINAL 600M

MAYBEBABY (1) is as quick a beginner as any horse drawn the front line so Emmett Brosnan should have the option of holding the top or handing up to a suitable horse. Expect him to look for cover behind a horse like ZOOMBA (2) reasonably early on with RINGTRIPLEOWE (6) off in search of a forward role and both THE KINGSTON FLYER (9) and CAPE N CUTTER (7) making their runs wide on the track.

Race 7 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Tricky race here because KOTARE ROLAND (1) is beginning better with every Australian start but may struggle to hold out fellow fast starters ARTOC (3) and OUR CRIME OF PASSION (5). Expect OUR CRIME OF PASSION (5) to work her way to the front if possible with KOTARE ROLAND (1) either holding her wide or more likely finding himself behind the leader. MISTER SHEEDY (9) is a natural enforcer who should go looking for the breeze with  TEO ENTEO (7) and LE RAPIDE (6) dropping on the leaders late.

Race 8 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Another race where there should be a good early battle for the front as DANCE WITH MIA (1) and ACTION ROYALE (2) should both be desperate to find the front first before handing up to PEMBROOK CAESAR (3) as soon as she cruises across. There is no pressure horse engaged here so expect Gavin Lang to put JUST LIVE LIFE (10) into the race at some stage but beyond that point it should be a top end peg-line dominated affair.

Race 9 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

FRANCO TEMPLAR (6) started from the top of the track when appearing across to lead LOTA VISION (2) in a similar race to this last time out and a similar scenario is expected to play out here tonight. THOMAS PYKE (7) is an interesting runner as he can go back or forward while ALGEEPEE (10) & MIAMI ROCKET (11) should be among those launching their bid wide on the track through the last lap of the race.

Race 10 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – OK ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

YERINGBERG (2), RAKOS (4) & EL PACO (5) are all quick beginners. Expect YERINGBERG (2) to find the find the front first before handing up to one of the other two, with the horse who doesn’t find the top  forced to face the breeze.  Not a lot should happen once they lob their spots although STONED ON JAZZ (9) is a talented type who may wither make a mid-race move or come at his rivals three wide solo late.

Race 11 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

FASTERT THAN CLEO (6) holds the key here. A brilliant beginner on her day she’d cross these in a bound if on song but she can do these wrong and an early mistake would change the complexion of this race. If she gets it right as expected then GATESYS GIRL (2) should settles somewhere near the speed with AYE RODRIGUEZ (1) getting a soft run and the others needing luck.

BLACK BOOKERS – (Racing Tonight)

Op Hands Down (Race 1 no. 10) ($12)

Did his share of work in the early stages at Bendigo first up from a break before sitting on Royal Witness and running that smart fellow to a long neck. He will be fitter and although the draw doesn’t suit him tonight as he likes to race up on the pace he is still worth of a ticket each way at good odds. Click here to view the run.

Tyler Bromac (Race 5 no. 5) ($5)

Ran a cracking race at Melton last start where he screamed home from mid-field in snappy sectionals for second to the smart Kotare Roland. He will find tonight’s assignment slightly easier and has a great chance of going one better if he reproduces his latest effort. Click here to view the run.

Lombo Ranmiles (Race 5 no. 12) ($10)

Found the line strongly at Yarra Valley last time when he charged late for second to the handy Freemason in what was just a dash up the straight. He has really sharpened up of late and although he will need a bit to go his way from the draw tonight he is not without an upset chance. Click here to view the run.

Teo Enteo (Race 7 no. 7) ($8)

Was simply sensational winning at Kilmore last start where he appreciated a hectic early tempo to run away with the prize in a slippery 1:56.8. He faces some stiff opposition tonight and draws poorly but he will get back anyway and if he gains the right drag into it he can be a threat. Click here to view the run.

STAR TRIALLERS – (Racing Tonight)

Im Corzin Terror (Race 5 no. 7) ($2.50)

Former Kiwi 5YO who joins Dean Braun with a strong record and looks primed for a big first up run going on his trial performances at Geelong of recent times. He has the car park draw to overcome tonight and does take on some handy ones but he is sure to be hotly fancied at his Aussie debut for the astute mentor.

Mister Sheedy (Race 7 no. 9) ($3.50)

Strong Emma Stewart-prepared 5YO who resumes from a 4-month break off the back of an easy Ballarat trial success 12 days ago where he finished off in slick sections. He meets some very smart customers first up tonight and will be giving them a start from the draw but he is classy and not to be underestimated fresh.

BLACK BOOKERS – (Bendigo Last Night)

Sunrise Panorama

Had no luck in the early stages and had to be snagged back to last before exploding down the outside to run a terrific fourth to Flash Of Freedom. He is going well without much going his way of late and will be winning a similar contest to last night with better fortune in the not too distant future. Click here to view the run.

The Seventh Son

Tough type who did a stack of work in the run and after putting it to Ultimate Deal from the 400m onwards he just failed to mow that bloke down. He has been racing with great heart the past month in claiming grade without winning but his turn is not far off if last night is anything to go by. Click here to view the run.

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