Good Form Friday - Dirty Dozen @ Tabcorp Park

THE GAME PLANS for Melton

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

Best Bet

Lavra Florence (Race 9 no. 7) $4

This mare was super in defeat behind Stuck In Second in her heat of tonight’s final at Yarra Valley where she did the work in the breeze for the last lap and went down fighting at the end of a 57.1 final half.  That was her second run back from a break so she will be at her peak now and with her gate speed sure to be used early by Anthony Butt to take up a forward position she will be extremely hard to beat.

Best Value

Princeofthieves (Race 4 no. 5) $4.50

This guy has won 7 of his 10 outings and has obviously had his share of issues over the years but there is no doubting his talent.  He resumes tonight without the benefit of a trial, which is the custom with the Kerryn Manning runners but he is sure to be close to the mark fresh and with a question mark over the way Im Barney Rubble is going at present I think this bloke is a terrific each way bet.

Best Roughies

Because I Can (Race 3 no. 6) $21

He’s not the best horse in this race but with his blinding gate speed likely to see him to the pegs first before seeking cover he will be in the right spot and I think at the generous odds he is definitely worthy of something small the win and a decent crack the place.

Lady Penrose (Race 5 no. 10) $41

Draws to follow Bellas Delight everywhere she goes and I can see her poised up in the 1 x 1 ready to strike once they turn for home.  She does possess a good turn of speed and although she may not be the best mare in the race she is worthy of a little something the win and plenty the place.

Best Trifectas

Race 3

Banking on my theory that Because I Can will be on the pegs getting a soft trip and I’ve come up with some trifectas based around him.  It’s a little risky but think it will pay quite handsomely if all goes to plan.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

6/ 1,2,5,7,11,12/ Field.  $33 gets you 61.11%

1,2,5,7,11,12/ 6/ Field.  $33 gets you 61.11%

1,2,5,7,11,12/ Field/ 6.  $34 gets you 62.96%

Race 4

As mentioned above I’m pretty keen on Princeofthieves and I’m going to use him as an anchor in some trifectas.  There looks to be some value on offer in this race, particularly if we can get Im Barney Rubble beaten or out of the place.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

5/ 1,2,3,4,8,9/ 1,2,3,4,8,9,13.  $50 gets you 138.88%

2,3,4,9/ 5/ 1,2,3,4,8,9,13.  $30 gets you 125%

2,3,4,9/ 1,2,3,4,8,9,13/ 5.  $20 gets you 83.33%

Race 11

Noted speedsters Guns N Roses and In Monaco will both run the gate and are a big chance of ending up leader, behind leader so for that reason I’m basing some Trifectas around the pair.  Going pretty wide for the placings too with any number of the other runners capable of filling a hole.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

5,6/ 5,6/ 1,2,3,4,8,9,10,11.  $50 gets you 312.5%

5,6/ 1,2,3,4,8,9,10,11/ 5,6.  $50 gets you 312.5%

Quaddies (x8) $100 Outlay

2,3,4,5,9/ 9/ 5/ 4.  $15 gets you 300%

2,3,4,5,9/ 9/ 5/ 6,9,10.  $15 gets you 100%

2,3,4,5,9/ 9/ 1,2,3,9/ 4.  $15 gets you 75%

2,3,4,5,9/ 9/ 1,2,3,9/ 6,9,10.  $15 gets you 25%

2,3,4,5,9/ 1,3,6,10/ 5/ 4.  $10 gets you 50%

2,3,4,5,9/ 1,3,6,10/ 5/ 6,9,10.  $10 gets you 16.66%

2,3,4,5,9/ 1,3,6,10/ 1,2,3,9/ 4.  $10 gets you 12.5%

2,3,4,5,9/ 1,3,6,10/ 1,2,3,9/ 6,9,10.  $10 gets you 4.16%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Victoria’s first metropolitan meeting for 2013 is a tricky one but there is value to be found everywhere. I have found one good thing  and five roughies and the beauty of the night is that if two of those roughies fill a place or one wins, we’ll probably see a small profit. Anything better than that and it will be a Happy New Year indeed!

Best Bet

Charlie Machsheen (Race 2 no. 6) $2.50

Despite being comfortably rolled by Restrepo twice this campaign I don’t think this bloke is far off the best 4YO’s in the land. He faces a nice field tonight but I reckon he has enough on them that he can drop out early, circle them & still win. I’m expecting we’ll get about $1.60 but if flip-of-the-coin is on offer then have a genuine crack.

Best Roughies (Each Way)

Thats Mister Ali (Race 1 no. 11) $17

This bloke has had a couple of indiscretions from the standing start in recent times but at his best he’s a blistering beginner from the strands who follows out another nice beginner (Jukebox Music) tonight. If he gets it right early then his class, which has seen him place behind Saint Flash and Bitobliss in the Nyah Cup earlier this term, will make him a very attractive Each Way option at odds.

Heza Panamach (Race 4 no. 8) $21

There are a couple of things in his favour here. One is that he should be at peak fitness following four runs from a break and ran an encouraging race last time out at Ballarat. The other is that he has drawn favourably given he shouldn’t finish up any worse than three back the pegs and may even lob the leaders back in transit. As a result he too looks fantastic Each Way value at $21 in today’s paper.

Mister Orion (Race 7 no. 5) $26

Put simply, no horse in this terrific field is racing better than this bloke. He was well backed and luckless first up when just missing at this course before charging late at Ballarat and then making ground on the winner in a 26.9-sec final split last time out. The draw is awkward but he has Gavin Lang on board to offset that and at $26 he’s well worth a nibble in a very open affair.

In The Present (Race 9 no. 11) $26

This guy will need a frenetic early tempo to feature as a winning chance but he’s been in good nick all preparation and if things go to plan he also looms as an extremely tempting Each Way option at seriously juicy odds.

Best Roughie (Place Only)

Because I Can (Race 3 no. 6) $21

Mah Sish should be far too classy here but from a Speed Map perspective I see this bloke crossing the lot before handing over in transit so if you’re getting $5+ for the place then I advise you to roll the dice and back him to hold on for 2^nd or 3^rd placing.

Quaddies (x2)

2,4,5,8,9,13/ 1,3,6,9/ 5/ 1,2,4,5,8,10. $30 gets 25%.

2,4,5,8,9,13/ 1,3,6,9/ 2,3,4,6,9/ 1,2,4,5,8,10. $70 gets 9.72%.

BLACK BOOKERS – Racing Tonight

Washmepockets (Race 3 no. 5) $8

This bloke put up a phenomenal performance in the Cobram Cup last start where he missed away badly from the stand, gave his rivals a 50m head start, tacked onto the bulk of the field at the bell and had the audacity to charge home into third spot behind Choice Achiever at the end of a 56.2 final half.  He takes on some quality opposition once more tonight but would only need to produce a similar effort to be mighty hard to hold out.

Our Blackbird (Race 3 no. 12) $9

Comes off a very unlucky run here behind Ubringthedrinks where he ducked and weaved his way between runners in the stretch to go down narrowly.  The draw tonight is against him and he will need a bit to go his way but if the pace is hot up front watch for him to be rocketing home at the business end.

TABCORP PARK SECTIONALS

Those eager punters who have been patiently waiting for sectionals from Tabcorp Park's past two Friday night meetings need wait no longer as they are finally here. Click here for last weekend's sectionals for EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Victoria's metropolitan home and Click here for all the sectionals one week earlier, on December 21, 2012.

SPEED MAPS

Please note that this week there will only be graphic representations of the likely settling positions in all of Melton's 12 races and punters are encouraged to follow @hrvinformer for all change of tactics information right throughout the night.