Friday, January 18, 2013

Good Form Friday - Dirty Dozen @ Tabcorp Park



THE GAME PLAN for Melton 

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Value Bets

Paintball (Race 1 no. 11) $3.20
I’ve been taken by both of her runs back from a break and although she draws the back row tonight I think that will work in her favour as there will be some pace on early and I can see her charging home off some cover late.

Matty Chrimes (Race 7 no. 7) $7
This is a race of some depth but I think this guy has a terrific each way chance as I can see him rolling forward, getting to the death without too much hassle and with a lack of any real pace in the race he should be hard to get past.

The Money Races

Race 2
I’m not telling you anything you probably don’t already know here but Fearless Leader and Bettor Believe It look miles better than their rivals and should run 1,2 so I’m loading up on the exotics with that pair.  Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

Quinella: 1,5.  $40
Trifecta: 1,5/ 1,5/ 4,8,9.  $30 gets you 500%
First Four: 1,5/ 1,5/ 4,8,9/ 2,4,6,8,9,10.  $30 gets you 100%  

Race 3
Similar to the previous race Nats Survival and Lively Princess appear to have the wood on their rivals and should finish 1,2 so I’m going to attack the exotics with that pair.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

Quinella: 1,2.  $40
Trifecta: 1,2/ 1,2/ 3,4,5,6,7,9.  $30 gets you 250%
First Four: 1,2/ 1,2/ 3,4,5,6,7,9/ 3,4,5,6,7,9.  $30 gets you 50%

Race 6
Regal Knight should be too good for these with Machin Out a clear second pick and almost guaranteed to fill the exacta so I’m going to base some exotics around that pair.  Below is how I’m playing for $100 total spend.

Exacta: 4/ 2.  $40
Trifecta: 4/ 2/ 1,3,8.  $30 gets you 1500%
First Four: 4/ 2/ 1,3,8/ 1,3,7,8,10,11.  $30 gets you 200%

Quaddies (x2) $100 Outlay
5,13/ 7/ 4/ 2,6,7,9,10,11.  $50 gets you 416.66%
5,13/ 1,2,6/ 4/ 2,6,7,9,10,11.  $50 gets you 138.88%


Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value

Lets Slash An Burn (Race 7 no.9) $9
It wasn’t that long ago that this guy split Smoken Up and Decorated Jasper in the VHRSC Classic and while this field is more than handy, there does look to be a heap of early speed engaged and if Emmett Brosnan can smoke the pipe until the dust settles then attempt to outstay his rivals then the $9 quoted in today’s herald Sun looks very juicy indeed. Back him Each Way.

Best Roughies

Sonofanearl (Race 4 no. 4) $17
This is a simple case of the Speed Map telling us the story. There are no guarantees in Stand Start trotting affairs but this bloke is a bullet from the strands on his day and barring accidents should find the front and have options once he does. He was coming off a six week break when close up in a similar race to this last week and look seven better placed on handicaps tonight. Play Each Way again.

Vapar Raine (Race 6 no. 1) $17
This mare is another Speed Map special. Put simply, she is drawn beautifully to trail likely leader Machin Out and given Regal Knight may have to apply some pressure if he’s to win the race, in behind the speed where she will lob looks the ideal place to be. She is third up from a spell as well and has plenty of talent on her day so back her Each Way at the very plump quote.

Money Races

Race 1
I just can’t help thinking that at their best Dual Agent Tabman (10) & Paintball (11) are a class above their rivals and should be fighting this out. With ordinary luck in running they should finish one-two but their draws are not kind so we’ll play a saver if things don’t go to plan.
10,11/ 10,11/ 8,12. $60 gets 1500%.
10,11/ 8,12/ 10,11. $20 gets 500%.
10,11/ 10,11/ 3,4,5,6,7. $20 gets 200%.

Race 2
It’s a similar case here as Bettor Believe It (1) & Fearless Leader (5) should outclass their rivals if everything goes to plan. Ideally. We’d love to see them leader/behind leader in transit but it’s more likely they’ll be leading and breezing. Either way they should also run one-two but we’ll have a one-three saver to cover our backside.
1,5/ 1,5/ 4,6,9,11,13. $75 gets 750%.
1,5/ 4,6,9,11,13/ 1,5. $25 gets 250%.

Quaddies (x3)

4,5,12,13/ 7/ 4/ 2,4,6,7,9,11. $36 gets 150%.
4,5,12,13/ 7/ 1,2,8/ 2,4,6,7,9,11. $36 gets 50%.
4,5,12,13/ 2,6,8,10/ 4/ 2,4,6,7,9,11. $28 gets 29.17%.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk

Andy Gath

Best Chance

Regal Knight (Race 6 no. 3)
“I’m sure he’s my best winning chance for the night. He’s only going to get better, he went well first-up and while this is a little bit harder it’s still well within his scope. We’re probably going to have to sit outside Machin Out but he’s very well and it’s a race that he probably should win.”

Others

Renaissance Man (Race 5 no. 7)
“He’s had a lot of issues over the last couple of years and it’s very hard to get a horse of his quality back to their best but he’s heading the right way. It’s going to be a little bit tricky from seven because we haven’t really decided whether we’re going forward or back but his work’s very good, he’s very sharp and this is another stepping stone for him.”

Bliss Man (Race 9 no. 1)
“He’s trialled well leading into this, he beat Macha in a trial quite comfortably and he’s got the good draw. He’s got good gate speed too so we’re going to try and lead; Guaranteed is obviously a quality horse but we don’t want to kid ourselves heading into the (Vic) Derby heats. We want to find out where we stand so if we lead, we’re very keen to hold the top. If we get beaten then so be it but we won’t be gifting Guaranteed the race.”

Precious Dragon (Race 10 no. 6)
“This is probably the easiest race she’s been in, she’s a nice mare without being a star. She probably lacks a little bit of high speed of high speed but she’d strong and she’s getting better and this does look a winnable race for her on face value.”

Ive No Boundaries (Race 11 no. 2)
“If it trots it wins. The likelihood of him trotting? I don’t know. He’s probably about a 50/50 hope. He ran second in the New Zealand Trotters Derby so he’s got plenty of talent. He’s got good gate speed and good overall speed but you’d be backing him on trotting the whole way and I can’t guarantee that’s  going to happen.”


BLACK BOOKERS – (Racing Tonight)

Paintball (Race 1 no. 11) $3.20
Quality mare who comes off a cracking second to Conflict Of Interest at Horsham 12 days ago where she did all the bullocking work in the run and was just nabbed on the post in 1:56.6 for the sprint trip.  She will be at her peak now after two runs this time in and with some pace expected early watch for her to be strong at the finish. Click here to view the run.

National Service (Race 5 no. 6) $8
This guy hadn’t been too dangerous in two runs back from a spell but he really caught the eye here last week when a fast-finishing fifth to Smudge Bromac and if he gets the right kind of trip tonight he is not without a chance at generous odds. Click here to view the run.
 
STAR TRIALLERS

Hermione (Race 5 no. 1) $13
Talented sit-sprint mare who hasn’t really fired this campaign but she has been freshened up for this assignment and has been trialling well at Bendigo and Kilmore of late so from the pole draw she is not without an each way show.

Keayang Cullen (Race 7 no. 11) $4.20
Top flight 5YO who resumes from a 3-month spell tonight off the back of an impressive Geelong trial victory last Monday night where he slipped home in 57.0 to beat stable mate Keayang Hanover comfortably.  He has the back row draw to contend with first up but his class will take him a long way towards winning this fresh.

BLACK BOOKER – (Kilmore Yesterday)

Christian Sloy
Was having his first start for Susan Hunter yesterday and after enjoying a soft trip on the pegs he busted loose of a pocket on the turn to charge home into second spot behind Truman in a slippery last quarter.  He is yet to win a race but will be very shortly on that effort. Click here to view the run.

SPEED MAPS

Please note that this week there will only be graphic representations of the likely settling positions in the quaddie legs for tonight's races and punters are encouraged to follow @hrvinformer for all change of tactics information right throughout the night.


PUPPET PULLS THE STRINGS


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