Good Form Preview - Dirty Dozen @ Tabcorp Park

HUTCHY'S VIDEO PREVIEW

THE GAME PLANS FOR VICTORIAN HQ

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Best Bet

Guns N Roses (Race 1 no. 12) $2.70

This guy is always competitive in this grade and comes off a gallant second to Lets Slash An Burn in one of these races here 2 weeks ago where he did his share of work in the run and boxed on bravely.  His task is made a little difficult tonight from the back row draw over the short course but there should be some speed early on and he should be able to sit wide the last circuit and shake the life out of this.

Best Value Bet

Bon Jovi (Race 8 no. 7) $9

There is an element of risk involved here as his chances hinge on being able to spear across the face of the field and take up the running, but I think it is worth the punt.  He led them up in his heat of tonight’s final at Shepparton and did a good job to run second to Ezee Duzit Lombo, who had the cold sit on him, and with that mare drawing the second row this time around I think he has a chance of turning the tables.

The Money Race

Race 5

I really like the look of this race, as I can see Because I Can handing up to stable mate Mark Dennis with Washmepockets sitting up outside the pair and I think they will dominate.  I think the best way to attack this race is via some trifectas, which I have outlined below.  I’m going to throw $200 at them and hope for some juicy dividends.

Trifecta: Boxed 1,3,5.  $80 gets you 1333.33%

Trifecta: 1,3,5/ 1,3,5/ 2,6,8,9,10.  $120 gets you 400%

Quaddie

1,3,5,7,8/ 1,3,5/ 1,3,4,9/ 1,2.  $100 gets you 83.33%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

It’s an unusual night at HQ with no morals across the 12-race card. That being said, there’s plenty of value on offer so I’ll be targeting a couple of roughies & putting a little extra into Quads, but my night will be defined by The Money Race – Race 7, which I’ll be smashing every which way I can.

Best Roughies

Mister Douglas (Race 1 no. 3) $11 & Dartmoor (Race1 no. 13) $13

Tonight could kick off on a big winning note if either of these guys can secure victory. Mister Douglas (3) is a teenager now but he continues to race in super form and will actually thrive on the speed created by a big field with a preferential draw. Double figures looks very juicy for him, while Dartmoor (13) also looks enormous value after marking his return to Dean Braun’s Lara stables with a brutal victory over a slightly easier field than this last time out. I marked these two $6.50 and $4.20 respectively so get on if their TAB price is any bigger than that.

Captian Cullen (Race 5 no. 8) $17

This guy is probably a place-only proposition but he draws to follow out brilliant beginner and likely leader Because I Can (1) and after two eye-catching runs back from a break he looks a great chance of filling a hole over the short-course trip.

The Money Race

Race 7***

This will be the make-or-break event of the night for me as I think it looks a ripper betting race with very few winning hopes where peg domination should reign supreme. The one query is whether Ubringthedrinks (4) can win the start. If he does, our whole plan is in major jeopardy but I’m punting on Our Blackbird  (2) finding and retaining the top and if he does, Veranjee (1) will be behind him, with Composed (8) three pegs. Amazingly, they will not only be the three best positioned horses in the run but probably the three best as well. That makes them very likely to fill the Trifecta, with only Jukebox Music (6) & Wartime Sweetheart (11) capable of running into third.  

Trifectas
2/ 1/ 8. $80 gets 8000%.
2/ 8/ 1. $40 gets 4000%.
1/ 2/ 8. $20 gets 2000%.
2/ 1,8/ 6,11. $40 gets 1000%.
1/ 2/ 6,11. $20 gets 500%.

Quaddies (x3)
1,3,5,7,8/ 1,9/ 1,2,3,4/ 1,2. $80 gets 100%.
1,3,5,7,8/ 1,9/ 1,2,3,4/ 6,8,11. $30 gets 25%.
1,3,5,7,8/ 5,10/ 1,2,3,4/ 1,2. $40 gets 50%.

SPEED MAPS - RACES 1 to 8

Please note that all Speed Maps are an interpretation of settling positions from HRV's Good Form team and for all up-to-date Change of Tactics you should follow @HRVinsider on Twitter.

RACE 1 – SPEED AVERAGE EARLY – PACE STRONG THROUGH FINAL LAP

MACH RULER (1) is at least as quick as any other horse drawn the front line here so he should lead from the polemarking draw with TOULOUSE LAUTREC (6) favoured to face the breeze early on. GUNS N ROSES (12) should provide the mid-race pressure from his second line draw while MISTER DOUGLAS (3) and DARTMOOR (13) look the most dangerous late closers.

RACE 2 – SPEED STRONG OFF ARM – PACE MODERATE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

There are a few here who’ll be looking for the top but ROGERS PASSION (1) should hold up early and have options as a result. LIERRE NOIR (7) can pull in her races and may go back or forward while BIT OF A BABE (10) races best on the speed and should be looking to go forward if she can. There are few if any dangerous late closers here although LAVISH ART (6) may well fit that bill.

RACE 3 – SPEED VERY QUICK EARLY – PACE MODERATE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Expect THE OLE BUCKAROO (4) to find the pegs first from his favourable draw here but there will be early pressure from both MACHABIBA (6) and FAIREST ONE YOU ARE (7). WHATA AVENUE (9) is a versatile type who may work to the breeze with no established enforcer engaged while MY HARD COPY (3) and FUTURE OPERATOR (12) will both be closing late from off the pace.

RACE 4 – SPEED OK EARLY – PACE GENUINE THE LAST 800M

There’s a little pace off the front line here but expect ALEPPO SUNRISE (5) to work over early and take up the running. Difficult to work out who’ll lob his back but there will be good pressure late from known enforcers EARL OF MOT (6), SUNDONS GIFT (7) and MISTER ZION (8). If she trots throughout, ALEPPO MIDAS (1) will get the last shot at them with BACKAS COBBER (3).

RACE 5 – SPEED GOOD EARLY – PACE AVERAGE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

BECAUSE I CAN (1) will lead these on his ear from the polemarking draw but he races well as leader or trailer so it’s hard to know whether he’ll hold the top or hand up to stablemate MARK DENNIS (3). Either way WASHMEPOCKETS (5) should lob the breeze with  NATIONAL SERVICE (9), THE RAGPICKERS DREAM (10) and the well drawn CAPTIANCULLEN (8) acting as ambush artists late.

RACE 6 – SPEED VERY QUICK EARLY – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Heaps of early speed off the front line in this small field with REPELEM (1), ART SHADOW (2) and MAJESTIC REIGN (3) all most comfortable from the head of affairs. Whichever of them leads, SARUM KNIGHT (4) and MACHIN OUT (5) will apply pressure through the middle stages. There are no ultra-dangerous sit-sprinters engaged although NIGHT AFFAIR (7) will be coming late.

RACE 7 – SPEED QUICK EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

OUR BLACKBIRD (2) and UBRINGTHEDRINKS (4) will fight out the early lead here, with the former horse favoured to punch through and hold the top. With no recognised enforcer the speed should drop once the field find their positions. VERANJEE (1) and COMPOSED (8) are favoured to get soft peg-line runs while JUKEBOX MUSIC (6) and WARTIME SWEETHEART (11) will close late out wide.

RACE 8 – SPEED GOOD EARLY – GENUINE THROUGHOUT LAST LAP

This is an exceptionally difficult race to read where BAD CAT (3), HELLOVAPARATY (6) and BON JOVI (7) should all push forward from their front line draws before CUT FOR AN ACE (9) whips around in to pour the pressure on at his earliest convenience. EZEE DUZIT LOMBO (10) looks best of the late swoopers but she will be relying upon a solid speed and a cart into the race.

STAR TRIALLERS

Fon Design (Race 9 no. 2) $3.20

Adam Kelly-prepared daughter of Modern Art who is on debut tonight and she should take beating first up from the nice gate going on her trial success on this circuit back in early December last year where she rated 2:03.4 and won comfortably. 

Triumphant Monarch (Race 10 no. 7) $2.70

Last season’s Breeders Crown champion who resumes tonight off the back of two recent trial victories on this track, one from the stand and the other from behind the mobile, and although he draws the car park first up he isn’t opposed to any superstars and his class should take him close to winning first up.

BLACK BOOKER – Charlton Yesterday

Floweronthewall Click here to watch her run

Ran an excellent race on debut when second to the very smart Almost El Eagle where she led early from the pole before handing up to that fellow at the bell and holding her own over the concluding stages at the end of a 27.6 final quarter.  She will come on nicely from that run and is sure to be hard to beat in whatever she contests next.

BLACK BOOKER – Echuca Last Night

Whats The Big Idea Click here to watch his run

Speared to the lead from a wide alley and beat all bar the classy Stormed Out in 1:58.8 for the sprint trip with that bloke having the last shot at him in the straight.  He was a most impressive winner at Shepparton prior to that and looks set to win his share of races this campaign.

SECTIONAL SUPERSTAR

Pacific Soul (Race 5 no. 6)
Last Saturday night @ Tabcorp Park, this guy ripped home his last half in 55.03-secs with a final quarter of 26.73 after landing a peg-line run. he strikes a very tough race and a poor draw tonight but is still worth including in all your multiple bets based on those numbers.

To View the sectional times for EVERY horse in EVERY race @ Melton last weekend just Click  Here.


MACHA IS... HOT TO TROT!