THE HUNTER CUP NIGHT GAME PLANS
Michael Polster (@MickPolster)
Best
Bets
On
a night where there are going to be a number of short-priced favourites, some
deservedly so, others not so much, but I’ve come up with the below trio who
just look too good in their respective races.
If
you’re feeling daring, and I always am, you can take them in an all-up on TAB
Fixed Odds which will net you $4.25 for every $1 you invest.
Star
5YO who is unbeaten on Aussie soil for Dean Braun and he looked simply awesome
winning his heat of this final at Shepparton where he
worked to the lead from his second row draw and scooted home in 27.1 to win by
a space. He takes on some smart customers tonight but draws to advantage
and he should have little trouble justifying his short quote.
Boom
colt who only enhanced his reputation by winning his heat of tonight’s Derby
here last Saturday night where he worked to the lead, cruised along in front
and threw down a 26.9 final split at his hapless rivals. He comes up with
a beaut draw once more, should get to the lead again and from there it will
shut the gate.
Star
Kiwi trotter who was terrific winning his heat of tonight’s final at Ballarat 8
days ago where he was forced to sit in the breeze but still managed to
overpower Kasyanov at the end of a 57.7 last half. He draws outside his
main danger tonight but Mister Zion isn’t a fast beginner and I think this guy
will establish a break on him early, possibly obtain the lead and if that
scenario plays out it is hard to see him being beaten.
Best
Value Bet
Guns
N Roses (Race 9 no. 4) $10/$2 TAB Fixed Odds - Click
here to bet on this horse now
The
best ‘over’ I can find on TAB Fixed Odds is this guy. I know he can be
hard to catch, but I’ve been impressed with his form of late, particularly his
gallant third to the star Kiwi Smolda in 1:54.5 last week where he did his
share of work in the run from a back row draw. He will find tonight’s
race easier, looks a big chance of getting to the pegs first and from there
Gavin Lang will give him every chance. I think he’s a terrific gamble at
the generous odds quoted. I genuinely think he is a $4 chance.
The
Money Races
Race
4
There
is no doubt that Smolda is the one to beat here and he does deserve to be a
short-priced favourite, but I don’t think it will be a pushover for him and it
wouldn’t shock me if Melpark Major caused a mini boilover, so with that in
mind, I’m going to take the below trifectas for $100 total spend to cover all
bases.
6/
10/ 2,3,4,9. $40 gets you 1000%
6/
2,3,4,9/ 10. $40 gets you 1000%
10/
6/ 2,3,4,9. $20 gets you 500%
Race
8
The
TAB have kindly boosted the F4 pool here by $25,000 and have guaranteed
$100,000 will be in the kitty so in what is an open Hunter Cup I think it looks
a great race to have a crack at and hope for a decent dividend. I think
Mah Sish is the one to beat and I’d be surprised if he missed the top three so
I’m going to base my bets around him. Below is how I’m playing with $150
total spend.
5/
3,4,10,12,14/ 3,4,10,12,14/ Field. $50 gets you 22.72%
3,4,10,12,14/
5/ 3,4,10,12,14/ Field. $50 gets you 22.72%
3,4,10,12,14/
3,4,10,12,14/ 5/ Field. $50 gets you 22.72%
Big6’s
x 2 $100 Outlay
5,6,7,8/
6,10/ 3/ 6,7/ 4,5,10/ 3,4,5,10,12,14. $70 gets you 24.3%
5,6,7,8/
6,10/ 4,6,9/ 6,7/ 4,5,10/ 3,4,5,10,12,14. $30 gets you 3.47%
Quaddies
x 2 $100 Outlay
3/
6,7/ 4,5,10/ 3,4,5,10,12,14. $70 gets you 194.44%
4,6,9/
6,7/ 4,5,10/ 3,4,5,10,12,14. $30 gets you 27.77%
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
A
G Hunter Cup night provides the best atmosphere of any Victorian trots meeting
every year and I’m sure 2013 will be no different. From a punting perspective,
I’ll be concentrating on the Quaddie & BIG6. That’s where I’m hoping to
make my money. However I’m also keen on Race 1 and hopefully I’ve found a
couple of value options.
Best
Value
Bellas
Delight (Race 7 no. 5) $5.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click
here to bet on this horse now
There
are a lot of shorties on tonight’s 10-race card – and most will probably get
the job done – but if you’d like something you can sink your teeth into then
this mare is the one. A luckless second to Pembrook Caesar (4) second-up
this prep, she went on to rattle home for fifth behind Sushi Sushi and Mah Sish
in the Bendigo Pacing Cup. She had no luck at Menangle last time and back to
the track where she’s won a Breeders Crown & two Vicbred titles she should
be much, much shorter than she is with TAB right now.
I am biased here as 'Donny' is my favourite horse but the philosophy in backing him tonight is pretty simple. To me - and most others - this is a two-horse race between Melpark Major (10) & Smolda (6). In my opinion, whichever horse settles in front of the other will win & I have Donny tracking through behind noted fast-starter Alchemy (3) and staying ahead of his major danger. I'm also confident that Smolda (6) is far from wound up & should be at his most vulnerable tonight.
Best Place Bet
Ginger Bliss (Race 5 no. 7) $4 Place TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
I'm shocked that this guy is still such big odds to run a drum. Simply put, he is the fastest 3YO off the mobile arm in Victoria and there's a massive hope he'll cross the lot before handing up to a suitable horse - most likely race favourite Guaranteed (3). If that scenario pans out he becomes a $1.60 shot to fill a hole so the odds right now FOR A PLACE are juicy indeed.
Best
Trifecta
Race
1
Im
Corzin Terror (4) is
a star. He can lead or sit parked here and win with comfort either way but he’s
at prohibitive odds so this is an ideal First 4 race. I’m playing a little wide
but w/ a little bit of luck we should reap some reward.
4/
1,5,8,10,11,12/ 1,5,8,10,11,12/ 1,2,5,8,9,10,11,12. $90 gets 50%.
Jackpot
Hunter Cup First 4
I
have already opened the shoulders backing Mah Sish (5) to win the
feature race of the night, but as I’ve said a few times this week, the Hunter
Cup is the Melbourne Cup of the trots, so playing wide – and for value – and
hoping for a collect is a pretty good philosophy. Here’s how I’m attacking the
race that stops a (trotting) nation.
5,12,14/
3,4,5,12,14/ 3,4,5,8,12,13,14/ Field. $100 gets 16.67%.
Quads
(x2)
3,9/
7/ 1,4,5,10/ 3,5,12,14. $80 gets 250%.
3,9/
1,6,8,11/ 1,4,5,10/ 3,5,12,14. $20 gets 15.63%.
BIG6
(x2)
1,5,6,7/
6,10/ 3,9/ 7/ 1,4,5,10/ 3,5,12,14. $64 gets 25%.
1,5,6,7/
6,10/ 3,9/ 1,6,8,11/ 1,4,5,10/ 3,5,12,14. $36 gets 3.52%.
TABCORP PARK TRAINER TALK
MARK PURDON
Best Chance
“He’s
got a lot of bottom to him; he’s a very nice horse. I think he’s aim is going
to be the Chariots Of Fire so it’s just another lead up run towards that. On
last week’s effort I thought he would be a little bit better again and hard to
beat.
“He’s pretty laid back so he’s hard to get a true line on
him but I’m pleased with the way he has come through last week’s run. I’d
expect him to be as good if not better. I’d say he is our best winning chance
on the night.”
Others
“I
Didn’t Do It is going to be hard to beat after drawing inside her but she has
got a lot of potential and with a half-decent run she will take a lot of
beating
“It’s her first year in the open ranks but she has run a
couple of slashing races and also beaten all bar I Can Doosit on a couple of
occasions.”
“He’s drawn awkwardly and we’ll need a bit of luck from the
draw. Guaranteed looks the one to beat and he’s drawn well again so we’ll need
some favours to be in the finish.
“Of the New Zealand runners I think Ohoka Punter is probably
the Kiwi’s best chance. He probably flies the flag of the New Zealand runners.”
“He fought hard in the heat, I’ve been pleased with his
training, leading into last week and again this week. If he can work to the
front he will be hard to beat.
“He generally hops away pretty good. On last week run he
will carry a bit of respect and should be able to work to the front at some
stage.
“He’s done really well this week. The distance will suit
him. The only thing is he will need some luck from the handicap.
“It’s a good field, given the calibre that’s been attracted
he will probably have to follow them until the last lap then try to make his
move from there.”
FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH
Connections Rate Their Hunter Cup Hopes
Number 1 – Saint
Flash – Glenn Douglas
“It’s a privilege just to be in the race. We sped away in
the Shepparton Cup and almost led, from one if he can step away like that he
can find himself in a handy position maybe behind the leader or three back on
the pegs.
“He dragged a flat tire for a bit in the Shepparton Cup, I
liked the way he went at Bendigo, I’m not saying he can win but we will
certainly be making our presence felt.”
Number 2 – Savesomtimetodream
– Paul Rowse
“I think it’s a fantastic draw for an up and coming horse.
It’s pleasing to know the horse inside us is also a good beginner. It’s great
to be on the front row, I joked to the people on our table that if we drew two
I would be very happy. It gives us a very rough chance of sneaking into a place
which is amazing considering the quality of the field.
“We felt we were a bit unlucky in the Shepparton Cup; we
thought we should have one. He has really trained on since then, he is relaxing
a lot better now. Obviously Mah Sish will be the short favourite but we are
still there.
Number 3 – Mach Alert
– Belinda McCarthy
“We’ve got a good draw for the stand start; he should be
able to begin quickly which gives him a nice chance.
“They may have dropped him for a little bit of speed in the
Ballarat Cup but he kept coming in the straight. He might not be one of the
top-liners yet but he is only a five-year-old and he is getting better.”
Number 4 – Four
Starzzz Flash – Cran Dalgety
“It’s a big bonus to draw the front row; he is very good
from the stand so we will make the most of that early. It’s a race that
everybody knows has a lot of prestige and a lot of money but this years it’s
probably missing five of the really good ones.
“It wasn’t one of Dexter’s best decisions, if he had have
come out we probably would have featured in the race but we’ll turn the page
and put that behind us, the bad drive is gone. He’s in super shape. He’s going
to surprise a few people. He’s a pretty good horse and he will thrive under the
conditions.”
Number 5 – Mah Sish –
Anthony Butt
“It’s a perfect draw for him really - as long as we landed
the front row I was going to be happy. He’s normally a good beginner and we
should be in the firing line from there.
“He’s a different horse form our last couple of Hunter Cup
winners. Stunin Cullen was a great juvenile who had some hiccups but when he
came back was a real high speed horse, whereas this horse’s strength is just
how tough he is. He has actually got a little bit of Flashing Red in him. I’m
not saying he’s at that stage yet but without making extravagant statements,
he’s heading in the same direction.”
Number 6 – Our White
Knight – Brett Cargill
"It would have been better to draw a bit closer but it could
have been worse. He goes away good so he should be up there somewhere early.
“He finished on the winners back and was still travelling in
the pure steel. I thought that was just as good a run or better than
Shepparton. He’s had three good runs in a row so he is at his peak fitness;
it’s all worked out well. He’s a rough each-way chance."
Number 7 – Devil
Dodger – Grant Dixon
“We’ve just got to get away early and try to look for a spot
closer to the pegs if possible.
“He should be fitter. He’s the kind of horse you have to
race to get fit so he should be better for last week. He should be as good as
he is going to be.”
Number 8 – Bitobliss
– Scott Stewart
“Standing starts a lot of times the barrier won’t matter but
you’d rather not have traffic in front of you. Saint Flash wasn’t that good
away in the Nyah and Kilmore Cups so it’s just one of those things that we’ll
have to take it as it comes on the night.
“It’s well documented he pulled up a bit lame after the
Victoria Cup but he’s come through that well and he’s trialled well a couple of
times. On his trials he is pretty close to where he was, racing will bring him
on but I’m confident going into the race."
Number 9 – Jaccka
Clive – David Aiken
“We would have preferred the front line. We’re a bit
disappointed but we will just need a bit of luck early. If the horse in front
goes away cleanly and we get some room.
“He got home in 56.5 last time. He’ll take good benefit from
that run and I’m happy with where he is at. He’s pulled up really well from
last week. We would have loved to have a couple more runs under our belt but he
had a couple of trials and that run so we are happy."
Number 10 – Pub Blitz
– Paul Fitzpatrick
“It could be better, could be worse. It’s better than seven
but not as good as one. We would hope to be in the first five if we can get a
bit of lucky early. He’s a good beginner and so is the one in front of him.
“He’s been going very well without much luck. He’s spot on
now. I think he’s a good each-way chance if the race is run truly.”
Number 11 – Our
Blackbird – Owner Merv Butterworth
“He’s had no luck with the barrier draws of late but if he
can get a three-wide drag into the race and use his preferred racing style of
ruching home after them then I think that’ll suit him down to the ground.
“He’s only put in the one poor performance that I can
remember this campaign and he’s as honest as the day is long. It’s a very
strong race but I’m sure he’ll justify his place in the field.”
Number 12 – Terrorway
– John McCarthy
“We were a bit surprised to get 10 initially but it might
not work out to bad given the early hustle and bustle. I’ll have to wait and
see the tempo of the race how it unfolds.
“We had to qualify last week at Menangle and it was a nice
win. We were happy enough with the run in the Victoria Cup before that. He’s
fit and good and he can run a long distance so we are happy with him. He’s a
good tough bugger so I’m sure he won’t disgrace himself."
Number 13 – Highview
Tommy – Mark Purdon
“He’s done really well this week. The distance will suit
him. The only thing is he will need some luck from the handicap.
“It’s a good field, given the calibre that’s been attracted
he will probably have to follow them until the last lap then try to make his
move from there.”
Number 14 – Caribbean
Blaster – Andy Gath
“We always knew he was going to be off the 10-metres, of the
three draws back there I think the outside is the best. There can be some
carnage with so many runners so Kate will assess when they get going.
“Over the last two years all his runs have been good. He’s a
horse that always works well and seems well; hopefully this race is no
different. We’ve isolated some races for him and this is one of them.
STAR
TRIALLERS
Broadways
Best (Race 7 no. 10) $2.80 TAB Fixed Odds - Click
here to bet on this horse now
First
up for the strong Emma Stewart stable tonight and she tuned up for this with a
Ballarat trial win 13 days ago where she only beat one opponent but did run her
last quarter in 26.6 to score by 25m so she looks ready to run a big race
fresh.
Gowan
Brae (Race 10 no. 3) $3 TAB Fixed Odds - Click
here to bet on this horse now
Andy
Gath-prepared son of Jeremes Jet who looked sharp winning a trial on this
circuit 12 days back where he finished off in 58.7 and he has been specked with
TAB Sportsbet so connections are obviously confident of a forward showing first
up.
SPEED MAPS
Please be reminded that these Speed Maps are an interpretation of where HRV's Good Form team believe runners will settle in each race. For all Change of Tactics information, follow @HRVinformer on Twitter.
Butt Wait... There's More...
Tim & Anthony Butt have made the Hunter Cup their own in recent years. Look below for a statstical record of their achievements in the race - and bear in mind that Mah Sish will almost certainly start favourite for the iconic duo at Tabcorp Park tonight.
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