Monday, March 25, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday at Yarra Valley

THE GAME PLAN for Yarra Valley – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

BEST BETS

Clevedon Betty (Race 2 no. 2) $2.40
It’s hard to believe this handy filly is still a maiden after 16 starts but that should change today as she draws to pounce on the lead, should get everything her own way at the head of affairs and it would be a shock to see her rolled.

Ohyeah Lifegoeson (Race 3 no. 12) $3
This guy hasn’t been seen anywhere near his best this campaign but things look on the up going by his trial success here last Tuesday where he beat handy type More Than Alright in close to the fastest time of the day and if he reproduces a similar effort today he’ll be too good.

Rowdy Rocket (Race 6 no. 1) $2
It’s a bit scary declaring a horse who has only won 1 from 44 but everything points to this fellow today as he was most impressive busting his maiden at Warragul last time from the front end and draws to repeat the dose this afternoon in this slightly harder affair.

Flaming Flutter (Race 7 no. 1) $1.40
Top class 3YO who was excellent winning his heat of today’s final at Cranbourne 13 days ago where he showed good speed to lead and with that run sure to benefit him plus the ace alley up his sleeve he should be too good once more.

Duke Of The Moment (Race 8 no. 11) $2.60
Classy Kiwi import with Dean Braun who performed well through the recent Tontine series, winning a heat easily at Hamilton before running a game second to Jarvsofaks in the final at Melton and although he will have to earn it off the 30m today his above average ability should be enough to get him home.

THE MONEY RACES

Race 2
As mentioned above in the Best Bets Clevedon Betty should be too good for this lot and I’m going to base my trifectas with her around Passionate Embrace who looks like getting the gun run behind Clevedon Betty with Mcrita, Open Heart and Louisiana Spring.  Below is how I’m playing for $100.

2/ 1/ 3,7,8.  $45 gets you 1500%
2/ 3,7,8/ 1.  $45 gets you 1500%
1/ 2/ 3,7,8.  $10 gets you 333.33%

Race 4
Major Landscape and Intergalactic look to have the wood on their rivals with Clancys Fobwatch, Amaury and Dagati Image the key place chances so I’m going to take some trifectas with that quintet.  Below is how I’m playing for $100.

1,2/ 1,2/ 4,5,8.  $60 gets you 1000%
1,2/ 4,5,8/ 1,2.  $40 gets you 666.66%

Race 6
As mentioned above in the Best Bets Rowdy Rocket is poised to go all-the-way once more today from the pole draw and with Steely Blue more than likely coiled up on his back I’m going to base some trifectas around that pair with Shezagrinner, Thewingman, Bella Hotshot, Son Of Sassy, One Tough Reign and Braeview Warrior.  Below is how I’m playing for $100.

1/ 8/ 3,4,6,7,11,12.  $42 gets you 700%
1/ 3,4,6,7,11,12/ 8.  $42 gets you 700%
8,11/ 1/ 3,4,6,7,8,11,12.  $16 gets you 133.33%

Race 7
Flaming Flutter is clearly the yardstick here and should win with ordinary luck with Regal Knight the upsets and most of the other runners in with a shot at filling third so I’m going to take the below trifectas based around the trio.  $100 total spend once more.

1/ 2,4/ 2,4.  $38 gets you $38 gets you 1900%
1/ 2,4/ 3,5,7,8,11,12.  $38 gets you 316.66%
2,4/ 1/ 2,4.  $12 gets you 600%
2,4/ 1/ 3,5,7,8,11,12.  $12 gets you 100%

QUADDIES x 5 $100 Total Spend
1,2/ 3/ 1/ 1.  $10 gets you 500%
1,2/ 2,3,8,9,12/ 1/ 1.  $30 gets you 300%
1,2/ 2,3,8,9,12/ 1/ 2,4.  $20 gets you 100%
1,2/ 2,3,8,9,12/ 8,11/ 1.  $20 gets you 100%
1,2/ 2,3,8,9,12/ 8,11/ 2,4.  $20 gets you 50%

STAR TRIALLERS

Ohyeah Lifegoeson (Race 3 no. 12) $3
He has raced below his best in three runs this time in but showed he is back on track by winning a trial on this circuit in fine style last Tuesday where he rated 2:01.8 and slipped home in 28.9.  He is clearly the best horse in this race and if he runs up to his potential they won’t beat him.

Paintball (Race 5 no. 2) $4
Talented mare who resumes from a short break today off the back of a Shepparton trial success 11 days ago where she accounted for stable mate and smart type Jasmine Sheffield so from the nice gate she is sure to be dangerous fresh.

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