Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night at Geelong

THE GAME PLAN for Geelong – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

BEST BETS

Blazeaway Macray (Race 6 no. 7) $1.90
Battled on bravely after a tough trip in the breeze here last start when second to Hoagy Bromac in fast time and although she may have to do it hard once more tonight from her extreme alley she might just have too much class for her rivals.

Discrimination (Race 7 no. 3) $2.50
Hadn’t been dangerous this time in before he showed his true talent here last start with an effortless all-the-way victory and with the lead likely to be his once more tonight he is sure to take catching over the sprint trip if he repeats that effort.

VALUE BET

Franco Templar (Race 1 no. 2) $5
This guy is ultra-consistent in this grade and tonight looks his best chance to crack it for an overdue win as he draws to lead and with his main dangers having to contend with back row draws that may give him the edge he needs to be successful.

THE MONEY RACES

Race 6
As mentioned above in the Best Bets Blazeaway Macray is clearly the one to beat but I don concede knockout chances to Fusion, Revivalist, Maybebaby and Ringtripleowe so in the interest of safety I’m going to play trifectas both ways.  Below is how I’m playing for $100.

7/ 4,5,8,10/ 4,5,6,8,10.  $80 gets you 500%
4,5,8,10/ 7/ 4,5,6,8,10.  $20 gets you 150%

Race 7
As mentioned above in the Best Bets Discrimination would only need to replicate his last start victory on this track to be nigh on unbeatable tonight but similar to Race 6 I’m going to err on the side of caution and play trifectas both ways with dangers Now Shezaterror, Shifting Sand, Jasmine Sheffield and Black Caprice.  Below is how I’m playing for $100.

3/ 6,7,8,9/ 1,4,6,7,8,9,10.  $80 gets you 333.33%
6,7,8,9/ 3/ 1,4,6,7,8,9,10.  $20 gets you 83.33%

QUADDIES x 4 $100 Total Spend
8,9/ 1,2,4,8,9/ 7/ 3.  $30 gets you 300%
8,9/ 1,2,4,8,9/ 7/ 6,7,8,9.  $27 gets you 67.5%
8,9/ 1,2,4,8,9/ 4,5,8,10/ 3.  $27 gets you 67.5%
8,9/ 1,2,4,8,9/ 4,5,8,10/ 6,7,8,9.  $16 gets you 10%

STAR TRIALLER

Hes Kinky (Race 3 no. 7) $2.70
Is now with Emma Stewart and he has trialled nicely at Melton since making an error when in the lead at Maryborough last time out.  He draws the car park with pace to his inside but he is very quick off the arm and whether Gavin Lang makes a play for the lead or opts for plan B he should take beating first up for the new stable.

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