THE GAME PLANS for Melton
Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
THE MONEY RACES
Tonight’s program looks a tricky one but I’ve come up with Races 1 and 5 as the best ones to target via exotics. I’ve outlined the bets below and will outlay $200, which along with my $100 Quad/Big6 will take my total spend for the night to $400. Good luck and happy punting!
Race 1
First Four: 1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ Field. $72 gets you 150%
First Four: 1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ Field/ 1,2,8. $28 gets you 58.33%
Race 5
Exacta: 1/ 8,13. $70 gets you 3500%
Exacta: 8,13/ 1. $30 gets you 1500%
QUADDIE
1,2/ 1,8,13/ 11,12,13/ 3,4,5,7,12,13. $100 gets you 92.59%
BIG6
3,4,5,7/ 1,2/ 1,8,13/ 11,12,13/ 3,4,5,7,12,13/ 1,2,3,6,7,11. $100 gets you 3.85%
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I advise
taking a Formula 2, where two of these three horses have to win for plenty and
an All-Up, which is predicted to pay $21 for every $1 invested for less.
Good luck.
8,9,11,13/ 1/ 8,9,11,13. $24 gets 200%
2,6,7,8,10,12/ 1/ 11,13/ 4,5,7,9,12,13. $36 gets 50%
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bets/
Formula 2/ All-Up
Purple
Village (Race 2 no. 4) $3.50
Put simply,
this bloke is much more talented than his rivals in my opinion and will be
running them down with any luck whatsoever in transit.
Repelem (Race
4 no. 1) $2.20
The only
question mark here will be whether Hryhorec chooses to lead or trail from the
polemarking draw. If she leads as expected then I think she’ll run them off
their feet but if the pressure is too great and she takes a sit it will need to
be behind another quality horse. Either way she should be winning.
American
Muscle (Race 5 no. 1) $2.50 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
There are no
question marks here. He will lead for sure and certain and so long as he wasn’t
flattened by last week’s effort it will take an incredible mid-race tempo for
his rivals to run him down.
Best
Roughie/Place Bet
Arber (Race
4 no. 8) $31
Tabcorp Park
raced with a distinctive leader/behind leader bias last Friday night and if
there are legitimate signs the similar scenario is developing tonight then this
guy is well worth a lash straight out for the place. He is $31 in today’s
Herald Sun market so we can probably hope for $5 the drum. If that’s the case
and Repelem (1) holds up early then you’ll certainly get a reasonable
run for your dough.
The Money
Races
Race 1
The Speed Map
here is almost set in stone. Real Hammer (2) will lead with Cromac
Jamie (1) on his back and Thirsty Mach (8) three pegs.
Realistically, they should dominate from there so take two Trifectas and you
shouldn’t miss the cash.
1,2,8/ 1,2,8/
1,2,8,12. $30 gets 250%
1,2,8/ 1,2,8/
4,5,7,10. $20 gets 83.33%
Race 5
As mentioned
above I am super keen on American Muscle (1) here and I see only four
realistic dangers in the race as a whole. Play the three Tricks below and I’d
say it’s your best chance of a decent collect all night.
1/ 8,9,11,13/
8,9,11,13. $56 gets 466.67%
1/ 8,9,11,13/
2,4,6,7,12. $20 gets 100%8,9,11,13/ 1/ 8,9,11,13. $24 gets 200%
Quaddies
(x3)
1/ 1/ 11,13/
4,5,7,9,12,13. $40 gets 333.33%
1/ 8,9,11,13/
11,13/ 4,5,7,9,12,13. $24 gets 50%2,6,7,8,10,12/ 1/ 11,13/ 4,5,7,9,12,13. $36 gets 50%
Tabcorp
Park Melton Trainer's Talk
Ross Sugars
Best
Chance
“I was really pleased with his last effort because he
rated very good time and has to do all the work being tested in front the whole
way. Straightening up it looked like he was running out of petrol tickets but
he fought on well in a 28.3 quarter.
“I was pretty happy with that run and he has handled it
very well, I’ve got no doubt he will hold the lead on Friday night and if all
goes to plan we should be able to get away with it.”
Others
Illawong
Magic (Race 3 no.3) $2.50
“I was pretty happy with his run, he came from second
last and was three wide. I’ve got no doubt if he had have lobbed up in a
forward position last week, he would have been right in the finish.
“He’s now back in the draw after being out of it since
before we got him so if he can settle up in the first three of four, preferably
in front, I think he will go pretty well.”
Veranjee
(Race 4 no.10) $12
"The statistics show that he ran the fastest last half of
any horse on the night last time. Admittedly he was on the fence, but it’s
still quite an achievement for the old bloke to still have a bit of sprint left
in him.
“He’s not quite good enough these days to try and circle
the field at Melton, so he will want a bit of luck and a run through but he is
going pretty good.”
“She did have an
easy run and she’s trained on really well. I was very happy with her
performance at Yarra Valley a few starts back.
“Whatever beats her will win because she is in a really
good place right at the minute.
“The only thing against her is probably the short
distance but they are normally a truly run race so that should help her. She
seems a little more sit/sprint these days whereas in the early days she was
just better than her opposition.”
Lance
Justice
Best
Chance
“I think Because I Can is the fastest out (of my three);
he should be up near the lead early and probably find the top.
“He is clearly the best in the race for me and if I was a
punter he is one I would be having a bet on tonight.”
Others
Discrimination
(Race 1 no.5) $26
“He found a bit of trouble last week, I tried to push him
out from a wide barrier and he got a bit unbalanced.
“He should go a lot better if he is able to find the
front or be outside the leader over 1700, it’s his pet distance.”
V C
Devil (Race 2 no.13) $7
“He cost himself the race last start by just racing
wayward in the last 50 metres. I had plenty of horse left he just lost his
thinking, he’s mind was elsewhere.
“He’s better suited from the second row because he has a
lot of ability and I’d rather be sitting outside them where I don’t have to go
to the front too early.”
Lady
Penrose (Race 4 no.6) $10
“She is just a horse in good form and as long as she
continues going the right way she should go alright.
“She’ll go forward and we will see what happens.”
Im
Barney Rubble (Race 5 no.12) $41
“I don’t like the second row draw at Melton for him but
he is going to go a lot better tonight because his work has been much better.
“He has really sharpened up in his work and he could get
a good trail into it so he should go well.”
Alchemy
(Race 7 no.3) $15
“He probably isn’t going quite as well as he was maybe a
month ago so we will have a think after tonight but he might be looking for a
little let-up.”
Toulouse
Lautrec (Race 7 no.4) $6
“He is working really well and racing really well so it’s
hard not to give him some chance in a race like this.”
Just
A Cracker (Race 8 no.9) $31
“Cracker’s just starting to come back into some form and
I’m thinking he will be better tonight."
“He is flying; his 20-metre handicap over 2000 shouldn’t
worry him too much.
“He has been going really good against really nice horses
you know, we were thinking he could win one of those big races.”
Sonofpaco
(Race 9 no.8) $31
“I thought young Zac probably could have driven him more
aggressively last week.
“And he draws inside the second row tonight so he is
going okay but he needs to be driven a bit tougher.”
SPEED MAPS
RACE 1
REAL HAMMER (2) is one of the quickest horses off the
mobile arm in Victoria and should almost certainly find the front here although
NIGHT AFFAIR (7) is also blistering at the start and will probably make
a race of it into the first bend. If everything goes to plan CROMAC JANIE
(1) and THIRSTY MACH (8) will land cheap peg-line runs while most of
the others will need to race tough or out-sprint the frontrunners to win.
RACE 2
ALLAUSSIE STAR (2), GENERAL JUSTICE (3) and PURPLE
VILLAGE (4) all have early toe but GENERAL JUSTICE (3) is favoured
to find the pace-making role. There should be a number of moves here for a
sprint race with V C DEVIL (13) most keen to get rolling through the
middle stages as a front-of-the-field type of pacer. MAJOR COMMAND (6)
and ART OF LOVE (9) are racing in good form but will need to ambush
their rivals from the back here tonight.
RACE 3
There is plenty of speed off the front line here with MISTER
GUNSEN (1), IDLE SUNTIME (2), MAKEMCRY MAORI (4) and GAZOLINE (6) all
go-forward horse at the start. MISTER GUNSEN (1) holds the key as he
probably has enough speed to lead but may yield to pressure from either ILLAWONG
MAGIC (3) or WAIKARE PATRICIA (7) through the middle stages. IDOIDO
(8) should get a soft peg-line run while MAORIS POCKET (13) appeals
as best of the run-on horse engaged.
RACE 4
REPELEM (1) possesses plenty of early speed and will
probably be left with the decision of holding the front or handing up in
transit. If she holds the top then WASHEMPOCKETS (7) or LADY PENROSE
(6) should lead up the running line with ARBER (8) securing a soft
trip and VERANJEE (10) stuck three wide but if she hands up then LADY
PENROSE (6) looks moist likely to relieve her of the lead.
RACE 5
AMERICAN MUSCLE (1) may be Australia’s fastest horse
off the mobile arm so he’ll be leading for sure with CULLEN BROMAC (8) very
likely to lob his back in transit. It’s difficult to tell who’ll occupy the
breeze but FIRE IT UP (6) has been living up to his name of late and may
pull his way up to that position, in which case CHARLIE MACHSHEEN (11) and
SAVESOMTIMETODREAM (13) will be obliged to race deep through the final
800M of the race.
RACE 6
KENSINGTON PALACE (2) and LIERRE NOIR (3) can
both begin quickly on their day but expect the former horse to hold the top at
least initially here given the latter has struggled after being used early in
her races. YMBRO TOTO (7) looks the logical option to land the breeze in
transit with COURAGEOUSNQUICK (8) enjoying the soft peg-line run she
loves and big guns LA MACHANE (13), CLASSIC BLISS (11) and THE GGOD
TIMES (12) all sweeping home wide out on the course.
RACE 7
There should be a super battle for the early lead here given
IN MONACO (1) and BECAUSE I CAN (5) are both scintillating
beginners off the arm. One thing for certain is that regardless of who leads
there will be plenty of pressure with BELLAS DELIGHT (9) and JACCKA
CLIVE (13) both established enforcers at Group 1 level. JUKEBOX MUSIC
(8) should get a nice inside run with CAPTAIN JOY (12) also likely
to be dangerous with one crack at them late.
RACE 8
This race is almost impossible to map for a variety of
reasons but we can expect POSIMISTIC (2), BUNTYS BASS (4) and TSONGA
(7) to all begin well and head forward at the start. CHUCK WAGON (3) generally
enjoys racing tough so he should be in the firing line as well with class
runner <OYU YOUNG JACOB (11) capable of making a mid-race move or
coming with one run and I SEE ICY EARL (6) most likely to out-sprint his
rivals in the lane.
RACE 9
There are a few with early speed here but more than 80%
confident that SULTRY LADY (3) will find and hold the lead with MONICA
MY DEAR (1) behind her and DEATH DEFYING (5) either sitting parked
or 1 x 1 in transit. SUNDONS PROMISE (11) has any amount of talent and
should come with a booming three wide run of she stays in gait with MISTER
ELWOOD (13) also keen to run his rivals down.
RACE 10
GOZO LIGHTNING (1) has OK early speed but he will be
challenged hard and probably headed by DUARDO (4) early on tonight. HECTORJAY
JAY (5) has proven he can race tough and may be forced to once again here
while VIEWPOINT (11) and ROCKBANK DANCER (12) look the most
dangerous closers from their second row draws.
RACE 11
Another very difficult race to map with so much speed drawn
off the second line but happy to suggest that TOMMY TUPPENCE (5) and FROSTY
STAR (7) will at least race handy and several of the class second row
runners like ILLAWONG LIVELY (10) and MISSANGER MANAGEMENT (13) can
either make mid-race moves or some with run run over the final 800M.
RACE 12
HACKASHAQ (2) and IFU SEEK FLIGHT (3) both
have gate speed but will probably be crossed by SUN OF SONOKO (6) if he
is on song at the start. STEAL A SIXPENCE (4) always seems to do things
tough and that should be the case once again here with GLENFERRIE DREAMER
(5) and VICS CHEVAL (7) both hoping to storm home passed their
rivals in the lane.
Sectional
Superstar
Travtiano
(Race 5 no. 4) $21/$4.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click
here to bet on this horse now
This guy
showed good gate speed then sprinted home in blistering final fractions behind
Charlie Machsheen last weekend. He strikes an incredibly strong Final but could
be worth an Each Way wager at very juicy odds.
To
view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday
night simply click
here.
As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.
Fastest Last Half – Glenferrie Shuffle: 55.35secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Travtiano: 27.1secs
Fastest Last Mile – Im Barney Rubble: 1:54.31
As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.
Fastest Last Half – Glenferrie Shuffle: 55.35secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Travtiano: 27.1secs
Fastest Last Mile – Im Barney Rubble: 1:54.31
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