Good Form Preview - Victoria Oaks Night at Melton

HUTCHY'S FINAL PREVIEW

THE GAME PLANS for Melton

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

BEST BETS

My High Expectations (Race 6 no. 5) $1.75 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to back this horse now

David Aiken has this bloke absolutely flying at the moment and after running huge races through the Great Southern Star series behind Vulcan he was simply stunning winning the Coulter Crown last week from the front end in fast time.  He gets back to his more favoured mobile tonight, should cruise straight to the top and from there they won’t beat him.

Frith (Race 7 no. 9) $3 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to back this horse now

Star NSW filly who was dominant through the recent Gold Chalice series at Bathurst before impressively winning her heat of tonight’s Oaks Final last week where she worked to the breeze, enjoyed a soft first quarter and proved too slick for her combatants over the concluding stages.  I think she will get to the chair once more tonight without too much hassle and be too good for them again.

Purplepeopleater (Race 11 no. 5) $1.80

Was outstanding winning the Breed For Speed Bronze Series Final on this circuit three back and after proving much too classy in a heat of the VSTA Cup here two back she went on to run an unlucky second to Wildenstein in the Final where she charged home after busting loose of a pocket in the straight.  She will find tonight’s race slightly easier and should bounce back into the winners list.

BEST VALUE BET

Stoned I Am (Race 1 no. 7) $7

This guy ran the race of his life last week in the Coulter Crown when third behind the flying My High Expectations, and with all due respect to his rivals tonight, none of them would dream of getting as close to that fellow as he did on that occasion.  He draws widely here and will need a bit to go his way but he drops a mile in grade, gets back to the mobile conditions and I think he is in with a terrific chance.  

QUADDIES X2 $100 Spend

1,2,4,6,8,9,10/ 1,4,6,7/ 5/ 4,9.  $56 gets you 100%

1,2,4,6,8,9,10/ 1,4,6,7/ 5/ 6,10,11,12,13.  $44 gets you 31.42%

BIG6’S X2 $100 Spend

1,5/ 1,2,4,6,8,9,10/ 1,4,6,7/ 5/ 4,9/ 1,3,7,9.  $55 gets you 12.27%

1,5/ 1,2,4,6,8,9,10/ 1,4,6,7/ 6,10,11,12,13/ 1,3,7,9.  $45 gets you 4.01%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bet

Lennytheshark (Race 9 no. 9) $1.80 ($50 Win)

I have a fair deal of respect for Timeseel (5) but this John Justice-trained NSW Oaks winner is an absolute star. He has been huge in almost every run this preparation and could sit anywhere in transit and still run this lot down. $1.80 is unlikely but even if we get $1.50 I still reckon he’s worth a massive whack.

Best Value

American Muscle (Race 4 no. 1) $4.50 ($25 Each Way)

If you put a line through this bloke’s disappointing Mildura Cup heat performance when way up in both class and distance last start he’s be $1.70 in this. I’m not willing to throw the baby out with the bath water so he gets another chance for mine at what should be Each Way odds and I’ll also be targeting him in a Money Race.

Best Roughies

Wartime Sweetheart (Race 5 no. 2) $13 ($12.50 by $37.50)

This bloke has really stepped up over the last season or two and fully deserves to be mixing it at FFA level these days. He was not far away from Blucolla Tigerpie in the best form reference for this race – The Lightning Mile – last start and given he’s a massive chance of lobbing the 1x1 behind stablemate & favourite, Jaccka Clive, the $13 looks very attractive.

Best Place Only

Sporty Mac (Race 12 no. 2) $26 ($50 Place)

I don’t reckon this guy’s got much chance of winning but in a pretty weak race he will be first to the pegs and may even hand up ascendancy to stablemate V C Devil (7) in transit. He’s no moral to run a drum but if you’re getting $4 the place then you should get involved.

The Money Races

Race 4

As mentioned above, I’m taking the risk that American Muscle (1) will bounce back to his best here, and if he does then he’ll run top-two for sure. If not, it could be off to the spelling paddock w/ our cash in the can!

1/ 4,6,8,9/ 4,6,8,9. $48 gets 400%

1/ 4,6,8,9/ 2,3,5,10,11. $20 gets 100%
4,6,8,9/ 1/ 4,6,8,9. $24 gets 200%
4,6,8,9/ 1/ 2,3,5,10,11. $8 gets 40%

Race 7

This is as wide open as any feature race I can remember but I’m still fairly sure that Frith (9) will run top-two. An ultra-reliable filly, she has something on most if not all of these for class and importantly, she will put herself into the race, most likely from the breeze and fight out the finish as a result. As mentioned, it’s as wide as you like outside here so play accordingly and hope for some value in exotics.

9/ 3,4,6,8,10,11,12,13/ Field. $80 gets 100%

3,4,6,8,10,11,12,13/ 9/ Field. $20 gets 25%

Race 9

As mentioned above, I think Lennytheshark (6) is a certainty here and Timeseel (5) is almost as likely to finish second. As a result I’m smashing three skinny Trifectas to try and make some coin.

6/ 5/ 1,2,8. $75 gets 2500%

6/ 1,2,8/ 5. $15 gets 500%
6/ 5/ 3,4,7,9. $10 gets 250%

Sectional Superstar

Fire It Up (Race 4 no. 8) $10

There were plenty of eye-catching runs from the Victoria oaks heats including those from Getya Wings Out and Mary Mon but this veteran has been flying of late and after pacing a sub-1:55 mile at Melton last weekend he’s a big hope in heat two of the Swift Signs Rising Stars Pace.

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Miss Moonlite: 55.4secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Veranjee: 27.2secs
Fastest Last Mile – Miss Moonlite: 1:53.67

SPEED MAPS