Good Form Preview - Empire Stallions VSS Night 2

The Game Plan for VSS Pacing Finals night at Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

If last night was the entrée then tonight’s Tabcorp Park meeting, with its half-dozen Vicbred Super Series Pacing Finals is the mouth-watering main course. From a punting perspective it is quite similar to last night as there will be a multitude of short priced favourites & exotics look the way to go however I also think we can cash in on some big roughies if we play conservatively for the win and liberally for the place. Punters should also remember that there is a guaranteed Quaddie pool of $250,000 on tonight’s awesome card so make sure you have a crack at the below Quaddies too.

*CAVEAT: This is a monster Game Plan w/ plenty of bets and plenty of expense. I will be following it to the letter but I encourage all punters to play within their budget or bank this evening!

Best Bets/All-Up
You can back these three horses one-by-one, have an all-up or do both.

Real Bonus (Race 4 no. 2) $1.90 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Put simply, if she leads as expected, she will win. The start will be decisive but I’m happy to back her even at the red-figure quote.

Youranut (Race 6 no. 2) $2.30 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
There’s no doubting Restrepo (1) is a star but I think this guy isn’t being given the kudos he deserves. He can win leading, breezing or sitting just off them so I think the black figures are juicy.

Jaccka Clive (Race 9 no. 6) $2.40 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
In the absence of Smoken Up & Caribbean Blaster he’s Victoria’s best horse and from the front line here he looks almost certain to bully this lot into submission if he’s right.

Best Roughies ($10 x $40 on all)
The beauty of these roughies, three of which are in tonight’s VSS Final for juvenile colts and geldings, is that if just three of the seven run a place we’ll make a tidy profit and if any win we’ll be celebrating long into the night.

Viewpoint (Race 3 no. 1) $21 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has stayed under notice for a pretty long time and with the aid of the ace alley tonight he should get the run he needs to use his excellent turn of foot in the lane.

Hectorjayjay (Race 3 no. 13) $26 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
He was gifted a magical drive by Simone Walker last start but in my experience horses who start well from the second line once, generally do so again and if he can lob a handy spot from the horror alley than he’s a massive price tonight, particularly for a last start semi-final winner.

The Fat Man (Race 3 no. 7) $21 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
In terms of talent I don’t think this guy is far off the best and given he’s better when out and running in his races I don’t think the wide draw is that much of an imposition.

The Good Times (Race 4 no. 10) $21 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I know first-hand that Clayton Tonkin doesn’t think there’s much between this girl and Beauty Secret (3) so with that in mind she must be worth a 1x4 lash from her OK trailing draw.

Magic Moment Lombo (Race 5 no. 2) $21 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This filly opened @ $101 w/ TAB, I backed her @ $51 & she’s just kept tumbling in. I am extremely pumped about her chances of running a race in an otherwise open affair and if she’s behind the leader I seriously think that she can win.

Jewel Castle (Race 5 no. 12) $26 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This filly has improved out of sight in this, her classic season, and after running home stoutly on semi-final night I think she only needs a cart in on the back of a decent horse to feature late tonight.

Distant Memory (Race 8 no. 3) $12 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
She is a great chance of crossing Mindarie Priddy (1) early and if she does I just don’t see how she can miss the podium tonight.

The Money Races/ Trifecta-Fest
Race 4
2/ 3/ 7,8,10/ 1,7,8,10. $27 gets 300%
2/ 3/ 7,8,10/ 4,5,11. $9 gets 100%
2/ 7,8,10/ 3/ 1,7,8,10. $11 gets 122.22%
2/ 7,8,10/ 3/ 4,5,11. $3 gets 33.33%

Race 6
2/ 1,4,5,8/ 1,4,5,8. $42 gets 350%
2/ 1,4,5,8/ 3,11,13. $8 gets 66.67%

Race 7
12,13/ 12,13/ 5. $20 gets 1000%
12,13/ 12,13/ 9,11. $20 gets 500%
12,13/ 12,13/ 1,2,3,7. $10 gets 125%

Race 9
6/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,8. $30 gets 500%
6/ 1,2,8/ 9,11,12. $20 gets 222.22%

Quaddies
2/ 2,3,5,6,8,11,12/ 2/ 12,13. $49 gets 350%
2/ 2,3,5,6,8,11,12/ 1/ 12,13. $12 gets 85.71%
3,7,8,10/ 2,3,5,6,8,11,12/ 2/ 12,13. $39 gets 69.64%

The Game Plan for VSS Pacing Finals night at Melton - with Dan Mielicki

The Moral
Youranut (Race 6 no. 2) $2.30 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke is a rising star for local trainer Ross Sugars and what makes him so appealing is that he can lead, race tough or sit-sprint and still be too strong tonight. Unlike some other favourites he’ll also be at a reasonable price with Restrepo (1) and Keayang Steamer (4) among his list of adversaries.

The Value
Lovable Larrikin (Race 2 no. 9) $14 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
He is not in one of the six Group 1 Super series finals but this guy is drawn to get a good run through from the nice trailing draw in tonight’s Tabcorp Park Melton Pace.  He is a a capable sit-sprinter who has caught my eye at his last two starts and is well worth entertaining on an Each Way basis.

The Money Race
Race 8 – VSS Final for 2YO Fillies
I’ve made Youranut my Best Bet all night but Mindarie Priddy (1) is an even better chance of winning and her stablemate Manellira (10) and fellow APG finalist Quick Draft (9) should figure prominently in the finish. With that in mind I’m going to play the two First Fours below.

1/ 9,10/ 9,10/ 3,7,8,11. $58 gets 725%
1/ 9,10/ 3,7,8,11/ 9,10. $42 gets 525%

The Quaddie
2,3/ 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11/ 2/ 6,12,13. $34 gets 70.83%
2,3/ 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11/ 1,2,4/ 13. $34 gets 70.83%
1,2,3,4,5,7,8,10/ 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11/ 2/ 13. $32 gets 50%

The Game Plan for VSS Pacing Finals night at Melton - with Adam Hamilton (@AdamTABSports)

The Moral
Border Control (Race 7 no. 13) $1.90 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
On a night where none of the hot-pots really grab my eye, I’m sticking with the magic of Mark Purdon to help this NZ record holder overcome a horror draw. There’s no doubt in my mind that he’s the best horse in the race and with his main rivals also drawn poorly I really do think he is the one.

The Value
Gypsy Babe (Race 5 no. 8) $5.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This NSW raider has looked awesome in dominant heat and semi-final wins since coming to Victoria a few weeks back. She will obviously need some breaks to go her way from the awkward gate eight draw, but if the gaps open I think she’ll prove terribly hard to hold out when it matters.

The Money Race
Race 6 – VSS Final for 4YO Entires and Geldings
I really like this race from an exotic perspective with big guns Restrepo (1) and Youranut (2) both drawn ideally and likely to dominate the race. Keayang Steamer (4) is the other key runner to consider but I think a few can finish third and fourth so I’m playing the two multiples outlined below.

1,2/ 1,2,4/ 1,2,3,4,5,8,11. $40 gets 200%
1,2/ 1,2,4/ 1,2,4,5/ 1,2,3,4,5,8. $60 gets 187.5%

The Quaddie
2,3,7,8,10/ 3,5,6,8,11/ 1,2/ 6,13 $100 gets 100%

Black Bookers

Donegal Delight (Race 2 no. 13) $12 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Alan Tubbs’ Kiwi recruit has taken some time to hit her straps on Victorian soil but her effort when missing the start by 50m but rattling home at Cranbourne last start was very encouraging. She has a bad draw to overcome but does possess a wicked turn of foot and should be at juicy Each Way odds.

Scruffy Major (Race 6 no. 8) $21 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
A sit-sprint specialist, this bloke has been blessed by his gate eight draw right behind Restrepo (1) in the Vicbred Super Series Final for Four-Year-Old males. He really caught the eye rattling home in last week’s semi-final behind Charlie Machsheen and can knock off the big guns if the cards fall his way.


Stats That Matter

* In the last decade, barrier one, two, three and six have dominated in Vicbred Super Series finals’, accounting for $51% of all winners.  Guaranteed (11), Border Control (12) and Im Smouldering (11) will all be trying to buck the trend tonight.

* In the last 10 years half of all Vicbred Super Series Final winners have won their semi-final while 75% of all winners have finished in the top-two.   That means Major Secret (sixth) and Restrepo (fourth) will have the odds against them this evening.

* In a wonderful effort, Ballarat trainer Emma Stewart has 10 horses in tonight’s Vicbred Super Series pacing finals. Last year she had four VSS winners including Guaranteed, Hexham Heartbeat and Our Femme Fatale who all return tonight.

* The average starting price of VSS winners over the past decade has been $6.40. Of the 91 finals, 45 (49.5 per cent) have been won by favourites while 13 (14.3per cent) have been won by horses starting $10 or more.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – David Aiken

Best Chance
Real Bonus (Race 4 no.2) $1.90 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“We couldn’t ask for a better draw with her. She’s just in the peak of her powers. If she finds the front she will be very hard to beat. It’s just been a terrific season for her, I think there was one blank at Ballarat but apart from that all her runs have been good.

“She’s always been big and overgrown and even though she didn’t win many as a three-year-old she wasn’t far of the good ones. This year particularly with her breeding, she’s really grown into herself and blossomed into a fantastic mare.”

Others

Atlas Alliance (Race 2 no.10) $31 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He drew well and ran really well second-up from a break last time. It’s a bit harder here but he’s been good. He’s a really honest horse, he’s better when he’s drawn to lead but he always runs well when he’s in form.

Bespoke Artist (Race 3 no. 4) $5.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s got great gate speed; it’s nearly as good a draw as you get for him. He was probably a little underdone in the heat and he was a lot better last week. I’d expect him to improve again this week.

Quick Jet (Race 5 no.9) $101 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“It’s probably going to be tough for her, but she has drawn the running line which might help. Her run in the heat was good but the run in between was a little disappointing. She can mix her form a little but can also pull out a run every now and then.

Quick Draft (Race 8 no.9) $7 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s a really strong finisher and the draw of nine should actually work out okay for her. David and Lisa Miles’ fillies will be very hard to beat but my girl is going to have high speed at the end so I give her a really good chance.

“When we met Mindarie Priddy at Melton, in hindsight Chris (Alford, driver) probably would have taken a sit on her and we might have finished a bit closer. We tried to out tough her but now we know a lot more about her.

“We knew she had a good wrap on her but she’s just a super tough filly and we can probably only beat her with speed.”
 
Jaccka Clive (Race 9 no.6) $2.40 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I’ve been really happy with his trials. I really do expect him to race well, he’s drawn wide over the short trip but he will just keep working forward like he usually does. On his last two trials at Shepparton he should be nearly back to his best.”

Wartime Sweetheart & Smudge Bromac (Race 9 no.11 & 12) $21 & $16 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on either horse now
“They’re actually similar types of horses but they’ve probably just drawn a bit wider on the back row than you would like over the sprint trip.

I just can’t see anything bringing them into the race but they’re both going really well. Wartime Sweetheart actually beat Bitobliss and Jaccka Clive in a trial last Thursday so we know he is back on track.

Sectionals

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Magic Moment Lombo: 26.68ecs
Fastest Last Quarter – Teo Enteo: 54.57secs
Fastest Last Mile – Johnny Quid: 1:55.82
 

Sectional Superstar

Magic Moment Lombo (Race 5 no.2) – $21 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This filly may not be an obvious blackbooker to those at home but her sectionals from last week were outstanding.

She ran sixth in her semi-final but stormed him in the quickest last quarter of the night in 26.68 and didn’t have the clearest of passages.

From the inside draw she could just get a soft run on the pegs and she has already been well supported with TAB fixed odds from $101 into $21.

 Speed Maps

 

BESPOKE ARTIST (4) is the quickest beginner off the front line and if he starts as well as he can he’ll have the option of holding the top or handing over to an appropriate rival, most likely BUSINESS IN MOTION (6) but possibly MAJOR SECRET (2) or MESSINI (3). VIEWPOINT (1) has drawn ideally for his sit-sprint style of racing as he should be behind the leader or three pegs at worst while THE FAT MAN (7) and HECTORJAYJAY (13) will both have to work if they’re to win the race.

REAL BONUS (2) is not the quickest beginner in history but she does leave the mobile well and should hold fellow fast starters BEAUTY SECRET (3) and BLAZEAWAY MACRAY (7) into the first turn. That should mean NATS SURVIVAL (1) & LA MACHANE (8) will get the soft runs they love somewhere on the peg-lines while most of the rest, including THE GOOD TIMES (10) will have to lob handy in transit and hope for a genuine tempo to figure.

OUR FEMME FATALE (3) and COURAGEOUSNQUICK (5) are both brilliant beginners who should fight out the early lead here tonight. If OUR FEMME FATALE (3) gets to the peg first as expected then she’s likely to hold the top w/ GETYA WINGS OUT (6) rolling forward and IM SMOULDERING (11) off and around them in search of the breeze. Either way MAGIC MOMENT LOMBO (2) should secure a soft run while GYPSY BABE (8) is likely to try and get off the pegs and JEWEL CASTLE (12) will hope for a cart into the race if she’s to be dangerous in the lane.

This is a very tough race to read as Gavin Lang can either opt to hold the top w/ RESTREPO (1) or look for cover on his main rival YOURANUT (2) before attempting to ambush that fellow in the lane. Either way KEAYANG STEAMER (4) should be obliged to race tough in the breeze while SCRUFFY MAJOR (8) will get the ice cold run he relishes along the inside. IT IS BILLY (5), CHARLIE MACHSHEEN (11) & TEO ENTEO (13) will all need luck to figure from their awkward draws.

The big beneficiary of Lennytheshark’s scratching here may well be ECHEVERIA (5) as he boasts both the gate speed and bottom to bully his way to the early lead although MAJOR CALIPSO (2) also has good early toe and may also have a say in who retains the top early on. Regardless of what happens there, big guns BORDER CONTROL (13) & GUARANTEED (12) should both be on their bikes pretty early on & whichever stays in front of the other is most likely to win.

As funny as it sounds up to four horse off the front line may have the speed to cross MINDARIE PRIDDY (1) at the start here but as she’s never been fully pushed out we don’t know just how quickly the favourite can begin. DISTANT MEMORY (3) & TALULAH BAY (7) are both very fast starters who should have a dig at the early lead while MINDARIE PRIDDY (1) will ether push through & hold the early advantage or come off the pegs in search of the re-take at her earliest convenience. SANDY KAY (8) should secure a soft peg-line trip while QUICK DRAFT (9) will try to ambush her rivals late and MANELLIRA (10) may be obliged to race tough in the chair or lead up the three-wide line from her second line draw.