Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ Shepparton

The Game Plan for Shepparton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Punters are probably well and truly over my love-fest every time we race at Shepparton but I really do enjoy punting at the track and after a tidy Quad dividend last night I’m ready to have a decent crack at things tonight. The cornerstone of our Game Plan will be a 4-horse Formula 3 including all of my Best Best but I’ve also found two at a little price I’m pretty keen on too. Multiple fans will only get the 1 Money race to play on but there are also four wide Quads which may also yield a tidy result.

Best Bets/ Formula 3 ($100 gets 25 times)
Put simply, all of the below horse should be winning but it’s just safer to take the Formula 3 in case there’s a spanner in the works.

Wolfpack (Race 2 No. 2) $1.80
Much as its name would suggest, this bloke was in the wilderness for quite some time before a great effort from the top end last time out. This race is a good deal easier than that one was and w/ the lead likely his from the polemarking draw it would be a shock to see him go under tonight.

Chevals Racer (Race 3 no. 2) $2.30
Another David Aiken trained runner, another leader, but this time it’s a trotter. This guy could hardly have been more impressive leading all the way last time out and with a similar situation likely here he should roll in at a pretty short quote.

Colby Reilly (Race 7 no. 1) $2.25
This bloke was a little disappointing last time out but if he can boot through and hold the top here he looks   almost impossible to roll and even if he doesn’t he is still the one to beat.

Did I Imagine That (Race 8 no. 8) $1.75
If he does everything right this race looks a benefit for the above trotter given his biggest rival is stablemate Kyvalley Rancher (1) and he beat that horse by 20m+ last time out.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Goldiedomic (Race 1 no. 6) $7.50
I’m not sure we’ll get the price quoted in today’s Herald Sun but this girl looks likely to bully forward early and keep her main rivals behind her and with a trouble free run she should just be too good.

Hoppyjoe (Race 5 no. 6) $6
In an ideal world I’d like to see Mark lee use this guy’s brilliant gate speed to cross the lot early in but I actually think he can go forward or back at the start here and still prove exceedingly difficult to beat.

The Money Race – Race 3
As mentioned above, I see Chevals Racer (2) leading its rivals a merry dance here and if the in-form Prettygirl Lassie (8) fills a hole behind him, we’ll be in the money once again tonight.

2/ 8/ 4,5. $20 gets 1000%
2/ 8/ 1,3,6. $15 gets 500%
2/ 4,5/ 8. $10 gets 500%
2/ 1,3,6/ 8. $5 gets 166.67%

The Quads (x5)
2,4,6,7/ 4,6/ 4,8/ 1. $32 gets 200%
2,4,6,7/ 4,6/ 4,8/ 3. $16 gets 100%
2,4,6,7/ 4,6/ 2,3,5,6,7,9/ 1. $24 get 50%
2,4,6,7/ 4,6/ 2,3,5,6,7,9/ 3. $12 gets 25%
2,4,6,7/ 1,2,3,9/ 4,8/ 1. $16 gets 50%

The Game Plan for Shepparton - with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV)
Best Value
Hezfullarunning (Race 6 no. 5) $9 ($20/$30)
This bloke hasn’t had things go his way in much stronger races in recent times. The race should be run at a true pace which will suit him and the $9 looks great each way value in a race that lacks depth.

Best Roughie
Terra Beau (Race 1 no 8) $13 ($15/$35)
This guy has been beaten comfortably at his last few runs however it has been against much stronger opposition than tonight from difficult second row draws. He has shown some gate speed at previous starts and should get an ideal run either behind the leader or three back on the pegs. Expect him to be getting home well in the lane if things go his way.

Money Race ($50 Flexi First 4’s)
Race 3
I expect Chevals Racer (2) to find the lead here from the good draw and on the strength of his win here last week I think he will be very hard to beat. The main danger is Pretty Girl Lassie (8) so I have played some skinny first fours around these numbers to try and make a profit.

2/ 8 / 4,5/ 3,4,5,6 $21 gets 350%
2/ 8/ 4,5/ 1,7 $6 gets 150%
2/ 4,5/ 8/ 3,4,5,6 $12 gets 200%
2/ 4,5/ 8/ 1,7 $2 gets 50%
8/ 2/ 4,5/ 3,4,5,6 $9 gets 150%

Quaddie x8 ($100)
6/ 1,2,4,6/ 4,5/ 1 $24 gets 300%
6/ 1,2,4,6/ 4,5/ 4 $12 gets 150%
6/ 1,2,4,6/ 3,8/ 1 $10 gets 100%6/ 1,2,4,6/ 3,8/ 4 $4 gets 50%
4,5/ 1,2,4,6/ 4,5/ 1 $24 gets 150%
4,5/ 1,2,4,6/ 4,5/ 4 $12 gets 75%
4,5/ 1,2,4,6/ 3,8/ 1 $10 gets 50%
4,5/ 1,2,4,6/ 3,8/ 4 $4 gets 25%




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