Monday, November 4, 2013

Good Form Preview - Cup Eve @ Geelong

The Game Plan for Geelong - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

It might only be for a couple of days but we're back to two meetings at the minute and today we kick off at Geelong where there's a clear top tip in more than half the programme's races but many have question marks hanging over their heads. I've opted to spread the load with a slightly risky All-Up, 1 Best Value Bet, 1 Money Race and a Half Dozen Quads!

Best Bets/All-Up ($50)

Clancys Fobwatch (Race 1 no. 3) $2
This bloke has always shown talent and after trialling impressively behind subsequent winner, Sandy Kay, he lines up or new trainer Ross Sugars tonight. On ability and potential he should simply win this race at a pretty short quote.

Chilli Palmer (Race 3 No. 9) $1.10
This bloke is headed straight to the big time and while he'll start at a prohibitive quote here, he may add just a touch of extra value to this three-leg multi.

Antigua (Race 6 no. 7) $3
Here is where the risk kicks in. This bloke has simply been in better form than his rivals and he does have the early speed to overcome the wide front line draw but he doesn't win out of turn and that is the concern. Having said that, he is the best horse engaged and you've got to take a risk somehwere or you'll never jag a decent collect!

Best Value ($20 x $30)

Castro (Race 5 no. 5) $5.50

I'm reasonably confident that Our Summer Wind (9) is the one to beat here but if Chris Shinn unleashes the shackles early on this bloke he could pinch a march in a race with little obvious pressure. If that occurs he'll be tough to roll and should at least hang on for a place.

The Money Race

Race 1

As mentioned above I'm pretty sure Clancys Fobwatch (3) will get the job done here and with limited hopes to fill the dais around him a couple of skinny Quads looks the order of the day.

3/ 1,2,4/ 1,2,4. $36 gets 600%
3/ 1,2,4/ 6,10. $14 gets 233.33%

The Quads (x6)

2,5/ 5,9/ 7/ 2. $28 gets 700%
2,5/ 5,9/ 1,5,8,9,10/ 2. $20 gets 100%
2,5/ 5,9/ 7/ 1,4,6. $12 gets 100%
2,5/ 1,2,3,8/ 7/ 2. $18 gets 225%
2,5/ 1,2,3,8/ 1,5,8,9,10/ 2. $12 gets 30%
2,5/ 1,2,3,8/ 7/ 1,4,6. $8 gets 33.33%

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