Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Mildura

The Game Plan for Mildura – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
There are only seven races in the Sunraysia tonight but I think it’s a terrific betting card with 1 Best Bet, 2 Best Roughies we’ll be backing straight out the Place, 2 Money races and a pair of Quads. I’ve only got Shayne Cramp down for two winners but they will be crucial to us walking away on top.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Glasscutterspirit (Race 5 no. 2) $4.25
There’s no doubt this guy’s been a difficult horse to follow as he looked like he might be anything after one run in Mildura and hasn’t necessarily continued in that vein of form but he loves the short course here when able to lead and everything looks pretty well made to order for him here. Don’t jump in if he’s paying silly odds but I think he’ll be at a backable quote.

Best Roughies – Place Only! ($50 Place)
Modernize (Race 2 no. 2) $21
Despite being well beaten last start this mare was actually still right in the race with 150m to run. Combine that fact with the extreme likelihood that she’ll find the early lead before handing over to a horse like Carbon Cate (6) and she looks an enormous chance of filling a podium spot tonight at pretty handy odds.

Sir Pickles Yumyum (Race 5 no. 1) $15
This is a very similar scenario as I see Glasscutterspirit (2) finding and holding the lead and the above pacer slotting right in behind him. He finished third the last time that scenario played out two starts back and probably would have finished closer if he’d stuck to the inside rather than coming out wide, so once again he’s a great place hope at pretty decent odds.

The Money Races (Flexi Trifectas for $50)
Race 1
If I’m on the money here then Kilburnie North View (5) and Jumbo Asakei (6) should fight out the early lead and one of them should get the chocolates. There’s actually a great chance they’ll completely draw away from their rivals but Franco Sentinel (9) has been racing well against both horses of late and looks the other key pillar for the Tricks below.

5,6/ 5,6,9/ 5,6,9. $20 gets 500%
5,6/ 5,6,9/ 2,7,10. $30 gets 250%

Race 4
Simply put, if Miss Ruthless (1) holds up early and then hands up to stablemate Attitude Adjuster (3) they will dominate the race but if Miss Ruthless (1) somehow holds the top or gets quickly crossed by Ronzel Gem (4) the race will change complexion very quickly indeed. I’ve tried to cover most scenarios here in the Tricks outlined below.

1/ 3/ 4,7. $25 gets 1250%
3/ 1/ 4,7. $15 gets 750%
1/ 4,7/ 3. $10 gets 500%

The Quads (x2)
1,3/ 2/ 2,3,6,8,9/ 6,7,10,11. $40 gets 100%
1,3/ 1,4,5,7,9/ 2,3,6,8,9/ 6,7,10,11. $60 gets 30%


The Game Plan for Mildura with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).

Money Races

Race 1 Flexi First 4’s ($50)
6/ 5/ 2,9/ Field $13 gets 92.85%
6/ 2,9/ 5/ Field $13 gets 92.85%
6/ 5/ 2,9/ 2,7,9 $5 gets 125%
6/ 2,9/ 5/ 2,7,9/ $5 gets 125%
6/ 2,9/ 2,7,9/ 5 $4 gets 100%
5/ 6/ 2,9/ Field $5 gets 35.71%
2,9/ 6/ 5 Field $5 gets 35.71%

Race 4 Flexi First 4’s ($75)
1/ 3,7/ 3,7/ Field $50 gets 625%
1/ 3,7/ Field/ 3,7 $25 gets 312.50%

Race 5 Roving Exacta ($60)
3R4,5,7 $60 gets 1000% of each combination

Race 6 Flexi Trifectas ($50)
9/ 2,3,6/ 2,3,6 $30 gets 500%
2,3,6/ 9/ 2,3,6 $20 gets 333.33%

Quads (x8)
1/ 3,4,5,7/ 9/ 6 $20 gets 500%
3,7/ 3,4,5,7/ 9/ 6 $5 gets 62.50%
1/ 3,4,5,7/ 2,3,6/ 6 $20 gets 166.67%
3,7/ 3,4,5,7/ 2,3,6/ 6 $5 gets 20.83%
1/ 3,4,5,7/ 9/ 3,9,10,11 $20 gets 125%
3,7/ 3,4,5,7/ 9/ 3,9,10,11 $5 gets 15.63%
1/ 3,4,5,7/ 2,3,6/ 3,9,10,11 $20 gets 41.67%
3,7/ 3,4,5,7/ 2,3,6/ 3,9,10,11 $5 gets 5.21%

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