Monday, December 23, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Maryborough

The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
The old adage while in Rome applies to today’s meeting at the home of the trotter with our Best Bet and a Money Race centred on the squaregaiter. I also think we’ve found one at good odds that can run a race for us and we will just split the Quaddie two ways today and hope for some value in one of the last three legs.

Best Bet ($75 win)
Rosemma (R2 No. 3) $2.10
First-up as a four-year-old this ex-Kiwi mare was nothing short of disappointing after pulling when leading a relatively even field as an odds-on favourite. Today she meets a slightly tougher field but if she settles better she should have the class to overpower her rivals on the way to better races.

Best Roughie ($10 win x $15 place)
Cheval Charette (R5 No.4) $13
This girl was big odds but absolutely smashed the line last time out in a restricted race at Melton. Prior to that she had been mixing her form a little but is generally consistent and with Gavin Lang remaining in the cart you can rest assured she is a massive chance to at least lob a place today.

The Money Races
Race 1 ($50 Flexi First 4’s)
This looks a good betting race with Daenerys Targaryen (6) likely to start well into the red and deservedly so.  She was just run down by a handy filly in Spidergrace first up and with the benefit of that experience I expect the Redwood Classic winner from last season to take care of her rivals comfortably. Zarah Gee (5) has shown ability for Dean Braun in her three starts and is the logical danger while Gaelic Lass (1) and Sister Of Sonoko (7) look the only other place chances so we will play the First 4’s outlined below.

6/5/1,7/1,7. $20 gets 1000%
6/1,7/5/1,7. $16 gets 800%
6/5/1,7/2,3. $10 gets 250%
6/1,7/5/2,3. $4 gets 100%

Race 4 ($50 Flexi Trifecta’s)
Major Secret (7) was a little underrated last season but took the Vicbred Super Series in gritty fashion then turned in two nice performances through the Breeders Crown Series. His easy trial win at Ballarat on December 7 suggests he has returned somewhere near his best so we can bank on him to run in the quinella. The other key chances are headed by value player Punchinello (1) who had nothing go his way at Cranbourne, and was defeated by bad manners prior, and also Motor Smoker (5) who was runner up in the 2YO Breeders Crown consolation last season.

7/ 1,5/ 1,5. $15 gets 750%
7/1,5/4,6,8. $15 gets 250%
1,5/7/1,5. $10 gets 500%
1,5/7/4,6,8. $10 gets 166.67%

Quaddies (x2)
7/4,5,10/1,4,5,6,10/3,4,6,7,10,11. $67.50 gets 75%
1,5/4,5,10/1,4,5,6,10/3,4,6,7,10,11. $32.50 gets 18.05%

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