Good Form Preview - SEW-Eurodrive Victoria Cup Night @ Tabcorp Park

The Game Plan for Victoria Cup Night – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Barring a little slip-up yesterday it’s been a great week on the punt and all for a good cause – so we could build a bank for one of Australasian trotting’s biggest nights tonight! At first glance I must admit to finding this evening’s programme a pretty big challenge but I have warmed to it over the last couple of days and fully believe that by targeting some Best Bets, taking advantage of TAB’s early Fixed Odds markets and playing some Money Races & Quaddies we could be partying in the Legends (or wherever you might be) after the last w/ much more folding than we started.

Best Bets/Formula 3 ($80 gets 20 units)

There are four Best Bets here but I’m prepared that one of them may lose do take a Formula three and hope that all four get the chocolates.

Regal Knight (Race 2 no. 1) $1.70 - Click here to bet on this horse now

The draw is no spoil for this guy because he’s not a blistering beginner and can get pulling when used off the arm but he’s got plenty on these for class and should be rolling home with a minimum of luck.

Yankee Rockstar (Race 4 no. 7) $1.30 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

When it comes to age restricted racing, class counts for everything and while there are a number of promising types engaged here, none are in the same world as the pacer above, so he should win with ease.

Abettorpunt (Race 5 no. 11) $2.50 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

This bloke would have been a $10 chance of winning the Victoria Cup from an OK draw so it only stands to reason that he’s the horse they have to be beat in what is essentially the Vic Cup Consolation race, the Casey Classic tonight.

Magical Telf (Race 9 no. 4) $1.80 - Click here to bet on this horse now

He didn’t win his heat of this race by a big margin but the manner of that success when pulling three wide down the back and getting home in a 55.8-sec last half was nothing short of awesome. He’ll have stablemate Saab Quality ensuring this is a true staying test tonight and if things go to plan he will be too good.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)

My High Expectations (Race 6 no. 10) $10/$2.89 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
There are half a dozen winning hopes here but this bloke is my top tip and at the price he’s well worth an Each Way wager, particularly if they go lickety-split in the first 400m tonight.

For A Reason (Race 8 no. 9) $14/$4.05 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now

I was near enough to certain this bloke would win the Miracle Mile and while he only finished third there, it was a luckless effort and I’m not jumping off, particularly at the pretty silly price.

Bets Roughie/Place Bet ($20 Place)

Terrorway (Race 8 no. 10) $5.70 Place TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
If there’s to be a blowout in this year’s Victoria Cup, he looks the likely culprit. I’m well aware that his best form is over 2500m+ but his Cranbourne Cup effort was enormous and he is peaking just at the right time, particularly if this becomes a last man standing affair.

The Money Races (Flexi Trifectas for $50)

Race 2 - Click here to bet on this race now
Regal Knight (1) really should win here but the most attractive aspect of this race from a betting perspective is that there are only two key dangers in Just Live Life (3) and Lombo Flashlight (8) and that they look a great chance of filling up the podium if the favourite lobs.

1/ 3,8/ 3,8. $16 gets 800%

1/ 3,8/ 7,10,11. $24 gets 400%
3,8/ 1/ 3,8. $4 gets 200%
3,8/ 1/ 7,10,11. $6 gets 100%

Race 9 - Click here to bet on this race now

I can see this race becoming a virtual replica of the second heat for this final at Cranbourne last weekend. On that occasion Magical Telf (4) produced a big performance to nail Living Lord (2) right on the line and it will be a shock if something similar doesn’t transpire tonight.

4/ 2/ 5,6,9,13. $28 gets 700%

4/ 5,6,9,13/ 2. $14 gets 350%
2/ 4/ 5,6,9,13. $8 gets 200%

The Quads (x4) (Races 5-8) - Click here to bet on the Quaddie now

11/ 2,3,5,9,10,11/ 1,2,6,8/ 1,9,11,13. $64 gets 66.67%
11/ 2,3,5,9,10,11/ 1,2,6,8/ 5,7,10. $18 gets 25%
12,13/ 2,3,5,9,10,11/ 1,2,6,8/ 1,9,11,13. $48 gets 25%
12,13/ 2,3,5,9,10,11/ 1,2,6,8/ 5,7,10. $20 gets gets 13.89%

Sectionals

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Cranbourne last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Im Corzin Terror: 1:55.27
Fastest Last Half – Magical Telf: 55.16secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Thirsty Mach: 27.84secs

Sectional Superstar
Caribbean Blaster (Race 8 no.3) – $10 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
The Blaster had to work into the Cranbourne Cup three wide without cover and despite feeling the pinch in the final quarter, he still rounded out the last half (55.76secs) in the first handful of horses in the race.

From barrier three he should secure himself a handy position in the running line and from there he is a massive threat in an open race.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Andy Gath

Best Chance
Regal Knight (Race 2 no.1) $1.70 – Click here to bet on this horse now
 “He’s going very well, he’s put in four or five top performances and it’s nice to have the draw so we expect him to be pretty hard to beat.”

Others

Gowan Brae (Race 4 no.3) $11 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a middle of the road horse, he’s not quite up with the good horses but he’s better than a lot of them, I think in six months’ time he will end up being a quality horse.”

Elegant Image (Race 6 no.10) $6.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“I’m one of few people who thought he got beat, I was in the right spot but when I got the 43 texts after the race I thought I might have to go and look at the photo. To run 27.9 out of the gate is quick for the pacers let alone the trotters so to still be fighting out the finish was a very good effort.

“There’s six or seven winning chances but he’s one of them, coming back from a hiccup you always like to see them come back and he did so he should be a bit fitter.”

Caribbean Blaster (Race 8 no.3) $10 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“He was on a par with his run last year, out wide at Cranbourne it can be hard to be in the finish but he was very good. We have healthy respect for the opposition and it’s going to take a great performance and a lot of luck.

“I don’t think he’s any chance of crossing Bitobliss unless Scotty decides to let him go but we will come out hard the first hundred. We don’t really want to get into any wars early; he’s just not that type of horse.

“There’s nothing else I can do that would make me any happier going into the race, it’s all on parallel to what we had last year but in saying that every race is different.”

Speed Maps

SPEED: MODERN MARY (2) should fly the arm and find the front with several rolling up in pursuit of the breeze through the first 400m. Expect a solid but not record-breaking top-end tempo.

LIKELY LEADER/S: MODERN MARY (5)

BEST LATE CLOSERS: OUR NANCY MILES (1), BELLASRIO (6), LITE JAGERMEISTER (7), TOMBSTONE EDEN (9)

SPEED: No brilliant beginners off the front line but that may just make for a willing run to the first turn. Whoever leads is unlikely to be pressured so it should be a sprint home up the Melton straight.

LIKELY LEADER/S: REGAL KNIGHT (1) or JUST LIVE LIFE (3)

BEST LATE CLOSERS: BLISSFULL KISSES (7), LOMBO FLASHLIGHT (8)

SPEED: It’s a quick front line but ADAM CARTWRIGHT (2) should find the pegs first with a number of others, including YANKEE ROCKSTAR (7) going up to test him at some stage. The speed will be dependent on how long it take the favourite to find his spot and how badly Gavin wants the lead.

LIKELY LEADER/S: ADAM CARTWRIGHT (2) or YANKEE ROCKSTAR (7)

BEST LATE CLOSERS: GOWAN BRAE (3), ELISEOS FALCON (6), ZNANA (9)

SPEED: Every horse off the front line possesses some gate speed and all of the class has drawn the second row, so expect a race of constant movement and pressure where only the strong will survive.

LIKELY LEADER/S: IM BARNEY RUBBLE (2) or EXCITEUSINTHECITY (3)

BEST LATE CLOSERS: BROADWAYS BEST (8), ABETTORPUNT (11), KEAYANG CULLEN (12) YOURANUT (13)

SPEED: ALEPPO MIDAS (2), HABIBTI (3) and VULCAN (5) are all quick beginners so it will be a willing early battle which should not readily ease up with second row runners keen to make their moves.

LIKELY LEADER/S: HABIBTI (3) or VULCAN (5)

BEST LATE CLOSERS: KYVALLEY BLUR (9), ELEGANT IMAGE (10), MY HIGH EXPECTATIONS (11)

SPEED: Expect a good charge into the the first turn here once they find their roles they may well drop the speed. JAZZ KING (6) is the key as he should sit parked and dictate the pace.

LIKELY LEADER/S: ELUSIVE CHICK (2)

BEST LATE CLOSERS: STYLISH JASPER (1), NATIONAL SERVICE (5), CARPENTERS DAUGHTER (7). METRO MIKE (8)

SPEED: BITOBLISS (1) and SMOKEN UP (5) have both declared their desire to lead so things could get willing early but regardless of that early burn, class runners of the second row will be keen to travel forward and much like last year this Vic Cup should be a last man standing affair.

LIKELY LEADER/S: BITOBLISS (1) or SMOKEN UP (5)

BEST LATE CLOSERS: RESTREPO (4), FOR A REASON (9), BEAUTIDE (11), CHRISTEN ME (13)

SPEED: LIVING LORD (2) and ALCHEMY (5) should both fly the arm but regardless of who leads there’ll be no loafing with noted enforcer SAAB QUALITY (6) there to keep everyone honest.

LIKELY LEADER/S: LIVING LORD (2) or ALCHEMY (5)

BEST LATE CLOSERS: MAGICAL TELF (4), THIRSTY MACH (9), VICTORIA MAY (13)

SPEED: A blistering early burn looks likely here with so many runners wanting to take up the lamp-lighters role over the 1720m trip. Once they drop anchor, BLITZTHEMCALDER (8) should be off and around to put the speed back on.

LIKELY LEADER/S: ROSALIE BAY (7)

BEST LATE CLOSERS: BLITZTHEMCALDER (8), MISTER ELWOOD (7), DEATH DEFYING (8)