Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night @ Bray

Jason Bonnington's (@jasonbonnington) Preview for Ballarat
It would a little silly of me to welcome punters to Good Form 2.0 as Blake Redden already started the party yesterday afternoon but this is my first taste of the new world & it would be a huge understatement to say that I am pumped! Tonight's Ballarat card is not an easy one but I'm relying pretty heavily on my Speed Maps for the 3 Best Bets I've outlined and for class rising to the top if we're to profit from the Money Races too.

Best Bet(s) - $30 win
Race 8 No.4 - Narra Operative $6
Classievale is a potential superstar when right but I'm willing to risk him second-up here in favour of this very tough pacer who was excellent mast start and may even bully his way to the front tonight. I also think he'll benefit with Jason lee in the bike so back him straight out & he'll give you a great run for your dough.

Best Value - $20 win
Race 6 No.8 - Le Premiere $4.80
A few things will have to go right for this fellow to salute but if he gets the soft run I'm expecting from the trailing draw and then sees some clear running in the lane, I think he'll be super tough to hold out. 

Race 7 No.2 - Bit Of A Babe $4.20
This local mare has been tackling the best of her gender and generation in recent starts and should really relish being back home over the 1710m trip. She'll cross and lead these early on for sure and if there's as little pressure as expected she can shoot for all-the-way success.

Money Race(s)
Race 1 $60 worth of Flexi Trifectas
The three big guns here are Clipper (6), Grand Attack (7) & In The Trenches (11). Despite their poor draws they should all end up racing handy & fighting out the finish with limited other runners who can join them on the dais.

6,7,11/ 6,7,11/ 6,7,10,11,13 $54 gets 225%
6,7,11/ 6,7,11/ 8,9 $6 gets 50%

Race 2 $40 worth of Flexi Trifectas
Royal Dream (8) & Drunken Maniac (3) have both raced better and looked better than their rivals here today & should fight this race out between them if both stay in gait with Aldebaran Etta (1) & Only One Aussie (6) the other placegetting hopes engaged.

3,8/ 3,8/ 1,6 $20 gets 500%
3,8/ 1,6/ 1,3,6,8 $20 gets 150%

Race 6 $60 worth of Flexi Trifectas
Unless something happens early on these four horses look to have something significant on their rivals and if Miss Dilly (1) finished first or second we should get a tasty little result.

Boxed 1,6,8,9 $60 gets 250%

Quaddie(s) - $100
4,11,12/ 1,6,8,9/ 2,4,7/ 4,6,7.$40 gets 47.04%
4,11,12/ 1,6,8,9/ 2,4,7/ 2,3,5.$18 gets 16.67%
4,11,12/ 1,6,8,9/ 6,9/ 4,6,7.$12 gets 16.67%
5,6,7,8,9/ 1,6,8,9/ 2,4,7/ 4,6,7.$30 gets 16.67%

Monday, September 1, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Maryborough

The Game Plan for Maryborough - with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)

Best Bet(s) - $30 win     

R4 No.2 - Wingofwaves  $1.80
The speed map almost assures that this fella will stroll to the top at his leisure but not only does he have the speed to lead, he is in the best form of any horse in the race. His last two placings behind Macworthy and Mumbai Majik have been in races no stronger than this and from the pole position; he will be hard to run down.

Best Value - $10 win x $15 place 

R5 No.9 - Bellingham     $7.50
Even from the 30-metre mark, I’m convinced Bellingham is the leading hope in a pretty even trot race. He has had his problems in the past but this preparation he reeled off a crushing win at Ballarat first-up and even last time he was terrific when sitting parked in a 57.8sec last half. If we get the price marked in today's paper, he is well worth an each way punt.

Best Roughie(s) - $5 win x $20 place   

R8 No.9 - Mooney         $17
It's always a little risky taking on a pacer first up from almost two years on the sidelines however this guy has been trialling pretty well around Melton of recent times. He was asked for some effort in his most recent but he came home in a 28sec last quarter which is speedy enough and from the draw he can drop in for a soft run and make a dash at them late.

Money Race(s)   

Race 6 $50 worth of Flexi Trifectas  
Both Ourcrowninn (1) and Jackabeems (3) have the speed to be involved early and if the latter can get across the former, they may very will dominate the race from there. Our four trifectas will rely on one of the two main hopes winning but we will play a little wider for the placings with Amazing Kano (4), Jaccka Lonny (5) and Three Pints (6) all serious threats.

3/1/4,5,6. $18 gets 600%
1/3/4,5,6. $15 gets 500%
3/4,5,6/1,4,5,6. $9 gets 100%
1/4,5,6/3,4,5,6. $8 gets 88.88%

The Quaddies (x4 worth $100)  

5,8,9/4,5,6/3,5,11/1,5,7,9.$22 gets 20.3%
1,2,6/1,3/3,5,11/1,5,7,9.$22 gets 30.5%
1,2,6/4,5,6/3,5,11/1,5,7,9.$20 gets 18.5%

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Good Form Preview - Sunday @ Mildura

The Game Plan for Mildura – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($50 All Up)
Intransit (Race 5 No.5) $1.50
This guy was back to his absolute best last time when dominating his rivals and although he is drawn a little wider here, he has the speed to be in the early fight and perhaps claim the top even if he isn’t first to the pegs. On what he has shown in the region so far, he looks a horse of immense talent and today is another stepping stone in that direction.

Anarion (Race 8 No.5) $2.10
This guy’s last two wins in really slick last halves have proven he is still on the up. He doesn’t meet a much stronger field here so with the barrier advantage over his main rival in Graceful Art (9), he should be able to go forward at the start and be really tough to beat if he can reel off anything like his recent splits.

Next Best ($30 win)
Colada Mach (Race 2 No.6) $3
This fella has only had three runs since April 2012 but his latest effort was terrific when running on for second behind Anarion at this track. Even though he has the horror draw here, he showed dynamic speed off the arm in his win in January at Mildura so if he can cross them at the start, they will have trouble catching him here.

Best Roughies ($5 win x $10 place)
One Knight Stand (Race 1 No.7) $14
We’re going to have a lash at two roughies in the same race here but each have some little winning chance and an even better place hope. One Knight Stand (7) is an underrated little horse who basically hasn’t had much go his way in all three starts and while the inside of the second row draw is never really ideal, Courage Draft (1) has shown some speed in the past. If that horse holds the top, he will certainly need some luck to get off at some stage but he can run a race regardless.

Elliot Bromac (Race 1 No.11) $17
This fella just hasn’t drawn a barrier of recent times but he was pretty good in a three-year-old race last time from a similar draw and he has a good little sprint if they put the pressure on at the start. While there is no need to break the bank, he is worth a little each-way wager in an even race.

The Money Race
Race 7 ($50 worth of Flexi First Trifectas)
Macray Soiree (3) has really hit his best in recent times and looks the horse to roll here however Yankidoodledanvers (1) is working up to a win and can provide some value while Boltenin (6) looks the other key danger. We will anchor our four trifecta’s heavily around those horses dominating the race.

3/1,6/1,6,8,9. $24 gets 400%
3/8,9/1,6,8,9. $12 gets 200%
1,6/3/1,6,8,9. $9 gets 150%
8,9/3/1,6,8,9. $5 gets 83.33%

Quaddies (x4 worth $80)
5/3,6/3/5. $44 gets 2200%
5/3,6/3/1,3,4,9. $12 gets 150%
5/3,6/1,6,8,9/5. $12 gets 150%
1,3,7,10/3,6/3/5. $12 gets 150%

 

Saturday, August 30, 2014

Good Form Preview - Saturday @ Cranny


The Game Plan for Cranbourne – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bet ($25 Each Way)

Coltrane Bromac (Race 7 no. 1) $3.50

The Money Races

Race 5 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)
5/ 1,2,3,6/ 1,2,3,6. $30 gets 250%
1,2,3,6/ 5/ 1,2,3,6. $20 gets 166.67%

Race 6 – The OctoTrick (x8 for $110)
13/ 12/ 6,10. $35 gets 1750%
13/ 12/ 4,8. $15 gets 750%
13/ 12/ 3,7. $10 gets 500%
13/ 6,10/ 12. $10 gets 500%
13/ 4,8/ 12. $5 gets 250%
12/ 13/ 6,10. $20 gets 1000%
12/ 13/ 4,8. $10 gets 500%
12/ 13/ 3,7. $5 gets 250%

Race 8 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)
9/ 6/ 4,8. $30 gets 1500%
9/ 4,8/ 6. $20 gets 1000%

The EARLY Quads (x3 for $140)
8/ 3/ 8/ 1,2,4,8. $60 gets 1500%
1,2,6/ 3/ 8/ 1,2,4,8. $40 gets 333.33%
8/ 6,7,8,9/ 8/ 1,2,4,8. $40 gets 250%

The Quads (x4 for $100)
1,2,3,5,6/ 13/ 1,6,11/ 9. $30 gets 200%
1,2,3,5,6/ 13/ 1,6,11/ 4,6,8. $30 gets 66.67%
1,2,3,5,6/ 12/ 1,6,11/ 9. $20 gets 133.33%
1,2,3,5,6/ 12/ 1,6,11/ 4,6,8. $20 gets 44.44%

Friday, August 29, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s the final Metropolitan meeting of season 2013/14 tonight & I’ve decided to go out with a bang by investing no less than $500 on tonight’s monster Melton Game Plan! The cornerstone of tonight’s punting bonanza will be both the Early and Standard Quads but in total, we’ve have an interest in 9 of the 10 races up for decision so sit back, grab a beer, open the phone account and enjoy!

Best Bets/All-Up ($80 Win)
Karkarooc (Race 3 no. 11) $1.40
This guy has been winning his races from the top end but he looks a very smart customer who should not be stopped by the second row draw.

Just Cala (Race 4 no. 7) $1.60
This filly is coming off a brilliant Breeders Crown win last weekend and if she wasn’t flattened by that effort she can sit anywhere in transit here and still prove far too good.

Shared Interest (Race 10 no. 4) $1.10
This is just icing on the cake. Im my opinion this guy could well be the best Victorian 3YO Trotter going around next term and should certainly finish a fruitful juvenile campaign with success tonight.

Best Value ($40 Win)
Blazeaway Macray (Race 5 no. 1) $4
I’m keen here. This mare has always thrived on short course racing at Melton and she never races better than when allowed to lead and dictate terms from the top. The key for her here is that she should get an uncontested lead and with no obvious pressure horses engaged she can thieve a mid-race quarter and let go when she likes. Tandias Bromac (11) is an obvious threat but she’ll have her work cut out from the draw.

The Money Races (Flexi Trifectas for $60)
Race 4
As mentioned above I think that Just Cala (7) has something of a mortgage on this race and should out-sprint her rivals with only those who also tackled the ABC series that she won likely to join her on the dais.

7/ 1,3,6/ 1,3,6. $42 gets 700%
7/ 1,3,6/ 2,4,8. $18 gets 200%

Race 7
Hilltop Hustler (2) was nothing short of awesome when first up last weekend and if he doesn’t have some kind of ‘second-up syndrome’ he’ll brain this lot tonight. The main questions that require answering are whether he will get the lead and if he does get the lead whether Asoka (1) will kick through and trail him or Alchemy (3) will fly across early and hand up mid-race. I really don’t have a strong opinion on wither front but I do think Hilltop Hustler (2) can win from the lead OR the breeze & we’ve also made provisions for whichever scenario plays out.

2/ 1,8/ 1,3,8,9. $36 gets 600%
2/ 3,9/ 1,3,8,9. $12 gets 200%
2/ 1,8/ 4,5,7,13. $12 gets 150%

The EARLY Quads (x3 for $150)
1,7,9/ 1/ 11/ 7. $69 gets 2300%
1,7,9/ 1/ 11/ 1,3,6. $45 gets 500%
1,7,9/ 3,4,5,7/ 11/ 7. $36 gets 300%

The Quads (x5 gets $110)
1,11/ 9/ 2/ 2,3,9,10. $50 gets 625%
1,11/ 9/ 2/ 4,8. $4 gets 100%
1,11/ 9/ 1,8/ 2,3,9,10. $16 gets 100%
1,11/ 1,2,3,8/ 2/ 2,3,9,10. $32 gets 100%
2,10/ 9/ 2/ 2,3,9,10. $8 gets 100%

 

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Echuca

The Game Plan for Echuca – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
This is an extraordinarily tough programme so I’m going to have some fun with it rather than try to make a fortune. If there’s one bet I’m keen on it is Neishars Jet in the last but the Quaddies look a nice way to play as well.

Best Bet ($40 Win)
Neishars Jet (Race 8 no. 10) $3.30
I have been on this fillies trail for a little while now and her runs through a fairly strong 3YO series were really full of merit. The draw isn’t going to make things easy for her but she’ll probably start better than the $3.30 marked in today’s paper and she should give us a great run for our cash.

Next Best Bets ($20 Win)
Black Jasmin (Race 4 no. 7) $4
Consistency is the key for this mare. It’s true that she doesn’t break through out of turn (1 win from 64 starts!) but she’s racing well and finds the right rave tonight.

Lights And Music (Race 7 no. 10) $3.60
This guy has a solid class edge on his rivals here and should be advantaged by a solid speed throughout.

The Money Race – Race 2 (Flexi Trifectas for $60)
Smiling Spirit (1) has no excuses tonight as he should really lead and win and given there are limited chances to share the podium with him this looks a nice exotic opportunity on an otherwise very difficult card.

1/ 2,9/ 2,9,11. $40 gets 1000%
1/ 2,9/ 3,7. $20 gets 500%

The Quads (x 2 for $160)
1,2,5,7/ 6,8,9,10/ 1,2,5,7,10/ 10. $80 gets 100%
1,2,5,7/ 6,8,9,10/ 1,2,5,7,10/ 2,7. $80 gets 50%

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Maryborough

The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($50 win)
William John (Race 1 No.4) $2.20
In what shapes as a genuine race in two, this guy has no question marks hanging over his head whatsoever. He had to park last time but wasn’t too bad in a bit of a blanket finish and this looks a drop in grade. Add to that the fact that he has been knocking on the door with a strong second behind Ainsdale three starts ago and a handy fourth at Ballarat and this really does look the race where he can break his maiden status.

Ya Messin (Race 7 No.1) $4.80
This guy was thoroughly unlucky first-up, he was locked away until seeing some space in the straight however after checking another horse he lost momentum and just didn’t have time to work into things late. He showed talent in his debut preparation when not far off Madison Louise and Clark Griswold and despite not having a whole heap of early speed, it’s not an overly quick front line so if he doesn’t get shuffled back early, he will be really hard to beat.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Mairhed Fallen (Race 5 No.11) $10
This filly has the awkward draw on debut but this isn’t the strongest race and I was pretty impressed by her recent trial at Ballarat. She whipped around them mid-trial and went to the line under very little asking from David Murphy so while the time was pretty slow, there is definitely some ability there and at the odds she is worth a little punt.

Lisandros (Race 6 No.10) $10
This colt may have been beaten 10 metres on debut but I was impressed with the way he continued to find the line. He had trialled pretty well prior to that run and although there are a couple of unknowns, this race doesn’t look any stronger so with natural improvement he will be right in the money today.

Quaddies (x2 worth $100)
1,6,8,9,11/1,2,5,8,9,10/1/2,8,11. $60 gets 66.66%
1,6,8,9,11/1,2,5,8,9,10/4,5,6,8/2,8,11. $40 gets 11.11%

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ Bendigo

The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Dizzyinterest (Race 1 No.12) $4
This is a terrifically talented mare who won the Breed For Speed Bronze Series Final in tough style earlier this year but since then she has been pretty troublesome in her gait however first-up from a freshen, she should be cherry-ripe for this, so even from the second row, she can do some work and still be too good.

Mind The Wire (Race 5 No.8) $8.50
The main reason we are looking to this guy is due to the speed map which should play into his hands perfectly. Xavier Jack (1) can hold the top and give this guy a lovely trail into the race and while he doesn’t have a whole heap of change up speed, the aforementioned horse generally gets rolling from the half mile which suits Mind The Wire (8) down to the ground.

Coast Warning (Race 2 No.10) $6
This guy is pretty well-bred being a half-brother to the very quick Coastal and he showed good ability in his debut prep. Which saw him scale to the heights of taking on Padrisimo in the Premiere Stakes. He should have come on for that experience and returning from a solid spell, expect him to be a bit stronger and more race savvy and while there is a pretty big boom on Somebeach (2), on an each way basis it’s hard to ignore this guy.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $20 place)
Never Let Me Go (Race 4 No.9) $21
The scratching has really aided this mare’s chances given she will now trail out the likely leader and odds-on favourite in Smiling High (1). While he will be hard to beat, he hasn’t put big margins on his rivals in either of his past couple so given Never Let Me Go (9) hasn’t had the clearest of passages in her last couple of runs, this looks her chance to run a big race.

The Money Race
Race 3 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
This looks a nice punting race because there are five horses who rate clear above their rivals, headed by Ynobe Coby (1) from the gun alley, Beau Ciel (3) and Majorama (6). The plan is to anchor those three heavily but save on Niquero (8) and Funny Car (9) if they run anywhere in the placings.

Boxed 1,3,6. $24 gets 400%
1,3,6,/1,3,6/8,9. $12 gets 100%
1,3,6/8,9/1,3,6. $9 gets 75%
8,9/1,3,6/1,3,6. $5 gets 41.66%

The Quaddies (x4 worth $130)
1,6,7,8/6,8/2,3,8,9/1,4,5,10. $50 gets 39.06%
1,6,7,8/6,8/2,3,8,9/6,7,9. $24 gets 25%
1,6,7,8/2,7,9,10/2,3,8,9/1,4,5,10. $32 gets 12.5%
1,6,7,8/2,7,9,10/2,3,8,9/6,7,9. $24 gets 12.5%

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Horsham

The Game Plan for Horsham – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Season 2103/14 is winding down fast & Good Form 2.0 is only 5 days away but until the brand new website with all its features is launched we still have to find a way to make a coin. In that spirit, I’m targeting one race for both my Best Bet & my Best Value while also focussing on 2 Money Races & 4 pretty expensive Quads.

Best Bet ($30 Win)
Whats The Big Idea (Race 5 no. 2) $3.80
This bloke isn’t the most reliable commodity going around but he gets conditions beautifully to suit here as he should lead them around over a short-course trip in a race with moderate pressure on a leaders track! On that basis, this is D-Day for him & I think he’ll get the chocolates if the cards all fall his way.

Best Roughie ($10 Win $20 Place) 
Alta Tearaway (Race 5 no. 8) $12
I’ve been following this mare pretty closely at her past few runs & I’m convinced she’s going pop up and steal a race of this nature at pretty handy odds. The draw is awkward but no deal-breaker and if they run along a bit she’ll only need a clear crack at them late to be a blowout chance.

The Money Races
Race 4
Jilliby Jagger (4) may well feature in a Chariots of Fire next season so the Horsham Guineas should be well within his grasp. Beyond him there are only three horses that should fill the next three positions & while it seems simple to say I think we’ll still get well rewarded for our efforts.

4/ 3,5,6/ 3,5,6/ 3,5,6. $60 gets 1000%

Race 6
Riverboat Princess (6) is a nice little horse who’ll probably win this race but I’ve also got respect for French Lesson (1) and Glenferrie Breeze (7) & think between them they should comprise the Trick. I’ve made some provisions if they don’t but it would be best for us if the big guns dominated here.

6/ 1,7/ 1,7. $20 gets 1000%
1,7/ 6/ 1,7. $10 gets 500%
6/ 1,7/ 3,5. $16 gets 400%
1,7/ 6/ 3,5. $4 gets 100%

The Quads (x4 for $180)
2,5,8/ 1,6,7/ 4/ 11. $72 gets 800%
2,5,8/ 1,6,7/ 4/ 1,8,12,13. $72 gets 200%
2,5,8/ 1,6,7/ 2,3,7,8,10/ 11. $18 gets 40%
2,5,8/ 1,6,7/ 2,3,7,8,10/ 1,8,12,13. $18 gets 10%


Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night @ Bray

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bet ($30 Win)
Vapar Grin (Race 4 no. 8) $2.80

The Money Races
Race 3 (Flexi Trifectas for $60)
1,4,5/ 1,4,5/ 1,4,5,10. $48 gets 400%
1,4,5/ 1,4,5/ 2,3,8,9. $12 gets 50%

Race 6 (Flexi First 4 for $100)
6,7,10/ 6,7,10/ 5,6,7,10,11/ 3,5,6,7,9,10,11. $100 gets 138.89%

The Quads (x4 for $160)
1,4,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 9/ 5,6. $60 gets 250%
1,4,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 9/ 4,7. $24 gets 100%
1,4,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 6,7/ 5,6. $60 gets 125%
1,4,6,7/ 6,7,10/ 6,7/ 4,7. $16 gets 33.33%

Monday, August 25, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Yarra Valley



The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($60 win)
Egodan (Race 1 No.1) $2.10
Not only is EGODAN  (1)very well-related being a half-relation It’s My Pleasure and Nowitzki but he has also trialled particularly well at Melton on a couple of occasions including his latest where he showed a little bit of gate speed. While it’s always a little risk siding with a debutante, he looks to be above average from what we have seen and with even luck he really should go pretty close.

Montu (Race 2 No.2)  $2
MONTU (2) couldn’t quite nail back Christian Torado last time but he showed solid improvement from his debut run and with the experience now under his belt, he should be pretty close to a win given this doesn’t really look much rise in class.

The Money Race
Race 6 ($40 worth of flexi trifectas)
Pushkin (1) has been terrific in three Australian start and if he can hold the early advantage then he is rhe horse to bear however Lots More Art (2) and United Legacy (7) loom as dangers so we will take the following two trifectas.

Boxed Trifecta 1,2,7. $24 gets 400%
1,2,7/1,2,7/3,4,6,8,9. $16 gets 53.33%

Quaddies (x2 worth $100)
8/1,2,7/2,9,10/2,4,6,7. $72 gets 200%
2,6,9,10,11/1,2,7/2,9,10/2,4,6,7. $18 gets 8.18%.

Saturday, August 23, 2014

Good Form Preview - Super Sunday @ HQ

The Game Plan for Super Sunday – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

D-Day is finally here! It’s felt like a longer wind-up than usual but Super Sunday, with its 10 Group 1 races has now arrived & we owe it to ourselves to celebrate the day w/ a punt! Often times, Breeders Crown finals day is an exotic-fest given many of the races have almost been decided before they have been run but that’s not the case this year with so many favourites & big-name performers drawn poorly in their respective divisions. I total, I’ve only tipped 5 of the 10 favourites to win but there are three I think can almost not get beaten which we’ll have in a big All-Up, while we’ll also be playing in the 4YO boys final, the 2YO fillies’ final & the Early Quad.

Best Bets/All-Up ($100 Win)
Frith (Race 1 no. 8) $1.40
We’ve spoken about this all week but in my opinion Frith is a genuinely outstanding open-age mare tackling one of the poorer sets of 4YO mares we’ve seen in recent times. The inside back line draw isn’t pretty but she’ll be off the pegs early on and once she finds the breeze it will only be a matter of how far for mine.

My Arya (Race 2 no. 6) $1.60
On face value, this trotting filly represents the best bet of the day by a pretty long way. Not only does she remain @ $1.60, which seems ludicrously generous, she brings over excellent from from NZ & two Aussie runs which have seen her roll the enormously gifted Shared Interest & finish second in the Redwood Classic to Eljaykay Phoenix. She’ll need to make a significant mistake to lose this race & I don’t think she will.

Follow The Stars (Race 9 no. 7) $1.30
This bloke is being spoken about in the most reverential of tones by legendary Kiwi conditioner Mark Purdon & he is proving his value on the track as well, particularly here in Oz. The key to this race is that every horse drawn to his inside will hand him the lead and if he leads he cannot get rolled. So if you do the math the $1.30 is a steal.

Best Roughies ($5 Win $20 Place)

Niki No No (Race 6 no. 12) $21 & Bamako Mali (Race 6 no. 13) $31
Almost everybody agrees that this is the toughest & most even race on the programme, and that should mean that it’s very quickly run. What we’re looking for is Soho Tokyo (3) to lead early on & at least make Katy Perry (4) work to find the front once she does. The dream would then be for a series of moves to ensue which will ensure a solid speed and give whoever has the three-wide cart in a chance to win the race. By my reckoning the two fillies above have a great chance of being in the right spot at the right time & at their silly odds we may get one of them home.

The Money Race - Race 5

I was already tipping Bit Of A Legend (13) here but I admit to being even further swayed by Cran Dalgety’s confidence in his pint-sized gun. I’m also envisaging a race where he works to the lead or breeze and Chilli Palmer (5) is left to spot him too much ground in transit. Having said that I still think Amanda Grieve’s speed machine will join our top tip on the dais and I’ve gone very skinny in exotics in the hope of snaring a really decent collect.

13/ 5/ 2,6,11. $60 gets 2000%
13/ 2,6,11/ 5. $20 gets 666.67%  
5/ 13/ 2,6,11. $20 gets 666.67%

The EARLY Quads (x4 gets $150)
8/ 6/ 2/ 1. $40 gets 4000%
8/ 6/ 2/ 3,7. $30 gets 1500%
8/ 6/ 6,7/ 1. $40 gets 2000%
1,3,5,6/ 6/ 2/ 1. $40 gets 1000%

 

 
 
 
The Game Plan for Melton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($40 win)
Spidergirl (Race 3 No.1) $1.50 TAB Fixed Odds - Click Here to bet now.
There has been plenty of conjecture around just how fast Blitzthemcalder (3) is willing to go mid-race but even if he cuts the ribbons, I’m convinced this mare has ascended to the heights as one of Australia’s best trotters. She twice tested Great Southern Star winner Keystone Del earlier in the year and has been thoroughly dominant since so all things being equal, she can either lead and absorb some pressure, or take a trail and outsprint them in the lane.

Chilli Palmer (Race 5 No.5) $3.60 TAB Fixed Odds - Click Here to bet now.
Quite simply, this horse is the single quickest pacer in Australia outside of perhaps ImThemightyquinn and his heat run to come from the clouds had to be seen to be believed. While he will generally need some sort of luck, he may be able to slot in a little closer than usual from the barrier and then unleash with a monster sprint when the gaps appear.

Best Value ($35 each way)
Bad Habbott (Race 9 No.1) $9 TAB Fixed Odds - Click Here to bet now.
This guy was posting some pretty quick sections and mile rates at Menangle prior to his Breeders Crown campaign where he was luckless in a heat behind One Over Da Moon when making an early mistake and then he got planted three pegs before rocketing late in his repechage to be narrowly turned over. He can either attempt to hold the lead, or take a trail and be a monster chance regardless.

The Money Race
Race 1 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas) - Click Here to bet now.
This looks the perfect race to play multiples because the speed map is well established. Courageousnquick (6) is a blistering beginner who will likely be first to the pegs while Im Smouldering (5) can continue hunting forward to try and take the top in the early to middle stages. If that pans out and Frith (8) can get off the pegs and run to the breeze mid-race, they will surely dominate from there. Im Smouldering (5) is probably the safest way to bank our main trifectas due to the fact she will be ahead of her major danger in transit but we will also save on the favourite landing the Group 1 chocolates.

6/8/5. $17 gets 1700%
6/5/8. $13 gets 1300%
8/6/5. $12 gets 1200%
8/5/6. $8 gets 800%

Race 3 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas) - Click Here to bet now.
Eljaykay Phoenix (7) has established himself as the state’s best juvenile squaregaiter with wins in the Group 1 Redwood Classic and Vicbred Super Series however Shared Interest (2) proved that gap is quickly closing with an impressive repechage win over his major danger. Either can win but what is almost guaranteed is that they will dominate affairs and should run the quinella so we are going to play three trifectas with Illawong Armstrong (3), Kyvalley Boomerang (4), Fabrication (5) and Col Du Galibier (10) as the place dangers to make some money off the race.

2,7/2,7/3,4,5,10. $24 gets 300%
2,7/3,4,5,10/2,7. $16 gets 200%
2,7/3,4,5,10/3,4,5,10. $10 gets 41.66%

The Early Quaddie (x1 worth $72) - Click Here to bet now.
While I’m keener to split up the normal Quaddie, the Early Quad looks skinny enough to have a little dip at. As mentioned above, the first leg will be dominated by the top three in betting but I’m not sure there is as much between them as the market suggests. In the second leg it gets a bit tougher but Val Gardena (3) won her repechage well while My Arya (6) has the class and Meadow Valley Road (11) is honest. If we can safely navigate that leg then Shared Interest (2) or Eljaykay Phoenix (7) into Spidergirl (1) looks a relatively painless ride home.

5,6,8/3,6,11/2,7/1. $72 gets 400%

The Quaddies (x3 worth $100) - Click Here to bet now.
Chilli Palmer (5) and Bit Of A Legend (13) really do have a class edge in the first leg however they are not over the line so our last Quad will safe on their main dangers in Almost El Eagle (2), Marty Monkhouser (6), Flaming Flutter (9) and Pachacuti (11). The second leg is again worth splitting up with Katy Perry (4) and Lina Lovegrace (8) the two main hopes but outside of them you have to play wide. The last two legs are a little less complicated with Bling It On (3) and Our Sky Major (11) a solid way to bank the third leg and Just Cala (1), Spicy Stride (3), Barynya (8) and Nike Franco (11) the must includes in the last.

5,13/4,8/3,11/1,3,8,11. $48 gets 150%
5/3,5,10,11,12,13/3,11/1,3,8,11. $24 gets 50%
2,6,9,11/4,8/3,11/1,3,8,11. $28 gets 43.75%


Speed Maps