Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Good Form Preview - Mildura Cup Heat Night @ The Sunraysia

The Game Plan for Mildura – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s night one of the Mildura Cup Carnival and I’m pleased to say we’ve got a little bit more to throw at it than we did 24 hours ago courtesy of a $500+ win at Maryborough yesterday afternoon. As a result we’re going to have a wide ranging crack at what looks a pretty tricky card including 1 Best Bet, 3 Best Value Bets, 1 Best Roughie, 1 Money Race and some Quads.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Angrist (Race 1 no. 10) $2.50
This guy was having his first run for Shayne Cramp last start when obliterating his rivals in by far the fastest of three heats for this race. As long as they don’t absolutely walk up front he should be a mile too good again tonight based on that effort alone.

Best Value ($15 x $10)
Yelspa (Race 2 no. 1) $5.50
This fellow is wonderfully consistent and after just missing out in a heat of this race when something of a victim of circumstance, he won well at Charlton last time out. The polemarking draw could not be more up his alley here and the $5.50 quote in today’s Herald Sun looks exorbitant indeed.

Crazy Dave (Race 3 no. 3) $6.50
This bloke was a deserving last start winner who can do work in his races and shouldn’t be scared off by the unique Mildura track. Expect him to breeze or at least race handy and go very close to getting the job done here tonight.

Caribbean Crest (Race 8 no. 1) $5
The ace alley is no spoil for this guy as he doesn’t possess any sizzling gate speed but regardless of that he is the most accomplished horse engaged and will only need a modicum of luck to make his presence felt tonight.

Best Roughie ($5 x $20)
Parisian Ruler (Race 2 no. 7) $14
This fellow lines up in the same race as Yelspa (1) and will be hoping that guy leads as expected because if that scenario pans out, he looks a huge chance of lobbing the gun behind/leader trail and would only need to go as well as he did in a heat of this race last start from there to figure.

The Money Race – Race 8
Caribbean Crest (1), Local Vicka Lombo (2) and Our Missionary Man (4) are the three best horses engaged here and they should lob the top three spots in transit. If that occurs then the Trifecta should be theirs but if not we’ve a made a couple of insurance-style provisions.

1,2,4 Boxed. $30 gets 500%
1,2,4/ 1,2,4/ 5,7,8. $24 gets 133.33%
1,2,4/ 5/ 1,2,4. $6 gets 100%

The Quads (x5 for $150)
1,4/ 3,7,8/ 1,7/ 1,2,4. $66 gets 183.33%
7,9/ 3,7,8/ 1,7/ 1,2,4. $36 gets 100%
1,4/ 3,7,8/ 1,7/ 5. $6 gets 50%
1,4/ 3,7,8/ 5,9/ 1,2,4. $18 gets 50%
1,4/ 1,4,5,10/ 1,7/ 1,2,4. $24 gets 50%

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