Saturday, May 31, 2014

Good Form Preview - Saturday Night @ Bray

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets / All Up ($50)
Urban Shadow (Race 2 No.1) $1.80
Punters looking for an absolute best of the night need search no further because this guy looks a class above his rivals. He should have the early toe to kick up and hold the top and he did defeat Lotsa Life three back before going down to Crazy Dave and Intergalactic since. Quite simply he should be too good tonight.

Lierre Noir (Race 5 No.9) $2.50
This is a fairly tough race but this mare is returning after a month away from the races. The last time we saw her ran ran a huge race in the HBV Silver Chalice so while she must again take on the boys tonight, her second previously to Union Belle has worked out to be pretty good form. If she is up around them early she can control the race and be very hard to toss.

Best Value ($25 win)
Desert Spur (Race 1 no.7) $4.50
This fella’s most recent start may say he was beaten 25 metres but that was behind The Boss Man who would start a $1.10 favourite in this race.  He won his three previous starts and even though he has the outside draw, he can overcome that at decent each way odds.

Best Roughie ($20 place)
Glencoe V C (Race 7 No.6) $34
After an outstanding trial, this guy started favourite on Aussie debut over Mister Onetwo, Amajorjo and co. He didn’t have a lot of luck there and then was arguably disappointing behind Chilli Palmer last time but in saying that this is a much easier race and if he gets the breaks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run into a place.

The Money Race ($30 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Race 4
Mister Wickham (7) has been super in two starts for Lee Evison and he would only need to remain in that sort of form to be the horse to beat here however both Be Good Juddy (5) and Justbritell (4) are snapping at his heals so we are going to play the following trifectas.

7/4,5/1,4,5,6. $24 gets 400%
4,5/7/1,4,5,6. $6 gets 100%

The EARLY Quaddies (x1 worth $85)
1,3,7,13/1/2,4,7,8,9/4,5,7. 141%

Quaddies (x2 worth $110)
4,9,10/1,2,6/1,8,11/1,2,3,9. $75 gets 69.44%
3,6,8/1,2,6/1,8,11/1,2,3,9. $35 gets 32.4%

Friday, May 30, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton– with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets / All Up  Formula 2 & 3 ($100 gets 25 units)

Lennytheshark (Race 7 No.1) $1.80 TAB Fixed Odds - Click Here to bet on this horse now.
It’s hard not to get excited with what this guy has done since returning from injury. He is a NSW Derby winner, Vic Derby heat winner and dual Vicbred Super Series Semi-Final champion but almost unbelievably he has been more visually impressive in two runs this season, albeit in lesser races. He did want to hang a little first-up but when Alford straightened him up he put a gap on them. There’s no doubt Ballarat Cup winner Restrepo (4) and speedster Chilli Palmer (9) will be serious threats but I think that Lenny could stamp himself as a star tonight.

The Good Times (Race 8 No.2) $2.80 – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
This girl really ran through the line late in the Group 1 Queen Of The Pacific when extricating off the pegs and prior to that she was a solid first-up winner at Charlton. She has flirted with being held in the absolute elite level of mares in the state for 12 or 18 months now and given her return this time in, coupled with the fact that she is third up and likely to be rock hard fit, I think she may have a little class edge on her rivals tonight.

Lazy Sunday (Race 10 No.5) $2.80  Click Here to bet on this horse now.
After beating Glenferrie Typhoon to the post on debut before losing the race on protest, this girl began well before galloping and losing 40 metres in a heat of this race.  What she did from there was extraordinary. Coming four and five wide off the back, she rattled home do go down in a blanket finish and if she lives up to the wraps tonight then she will simply be too good for her rivals.

Best Value ($15 win x $25 place)
Asoka (Race 5 No.5) $6 – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
I just love the way this guy goes about his business. He has been forced to park at his last five starts with the most recent runs yielding a win over Flaming Flutter, a third to Lennytheshark and a fourth to Chilli Palmer. Prior to that his form around Sapphire Swayze and Mister Onetwo has even stacked up. Last time he did park outside Amajorjo (4) and just touched him off on the line so given that scenario is likely to ensue again, I think he is the horse to beat.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $15 place)
Clancys Fobwatch (Race 6 No.10) $16 – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
This is the second straight week this fella has made it into the Game Plan and while many will think its heart over head after he won for us last week, I still think there is more to come for him. He won’t be able to find the lead like he did last time but he is pretty versatile and with horses such as Im Barney Rubble (11) and Astronaut (9) around him, he may just pinch a very economical trip into the race when things get serious so rate him a serious place hope and perhaps even a knockout for Quaddies.

The Money Race
Race 8 ($44 worth of Flexi Trifectas) – Click Here to bet on this race now.
As mentioned above, I really do think The Good Times (2) is going to be very hard to beat but don’t discount Hes Magic Red (3) who is a little underrated, Manuka Man (5) who is a progressive type and Gangster Boy (11). For that reason we are going to try and snag a trifecta by playing wide for third.

2/3,5,11/3,5,6,7,8,9,11. $36 gets 200%
3,5,11/2/3,5,6,7,8,9,11. $18 gets 100%

The EARLY Quaddie JACKPOT (x3 worth $90) – Click Here to bet on the Early Quaddie now.
10,11/2,3,8,12/3,5,8,13/11. $32 gets 100%
1,3,5,6/2,3,8,12/3,5,8,13/11. $32 gets 50%
10,11/2,3,8,12/3,5,8,13/4,5,6,7. $26 gets 20.3%

Quaddie (x4 worth $110) – Click Here to bet on the Quaddie now.
4,5,8,12/5,8/1/2,3,5. $36 gets 150%
4,5,8,12/2,3,4,9,10/1/2,3,5. $30 gets 50%
4,5,8,12/5,8/4,9/2,3,5. $24 gets 50%
4,5,8,12/2,3,4,9,10/4,9/2,3,5. $20 gets 16.67%

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Chilli Palmer: 1:54.90

Fastest Last Half – Chilli Palmer: 54.61secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Glenferrie Shuffle: 26.77secs

Sectional Superstar
Chilli Palmer (Race 7 no.9) $4 TAB Fixed Odds – Click Here to bet on this horse now.
The sectional snapshot says it all. This guy has the high speed rarely seen in a pacer so if he can reproduce some of his mind-boggling efforts of recent months then he is every chance of pulling out and making a mess of his more highly fancied rivals tonight.

Speed Maps

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Shepparton

The Game Plan for Shepparton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s a very well known fact that I love punting @ Shepparton and tonight should be no different with a quality nine-race programme on offer and plenty of ways to play what looks a juicy card. I started off with a number of Best bets but pared them back to just 2, while I also ripped back my Best Roughies to the same number. The double-shot theme continues w/ our pair of Money Races but ends with the inclusion of four risky but potentially lucrative Quads.

Best Bets ($50 Win)
Sammy Charles (Race 2 no. 6) $3.40
This bloke arrives here fresh from one of the best form races imaginable where he split super Illawong pair Moonshine and Helios who have both run massive races since at Maryborough yesterday. Add to that fact the likelihood that he’ll bully his way to the front or at least sit quietly parked here and I’m confident he’s the one to beat for sure.

Bit Noisy (Race 6 no. 6) $2.90
This free-legged pacer exploded to the front in the quickest heat for this race before running along and then blasting away from his rivals’ last time out. He has always come with a bit of a quiet boom and if he reproduces his last start display tonight they will not get anywhere near him again.

Best Roughies ($5 Win x $15 Place)
Majestic Swan (Race 6 no. 8) $10
This girl is in the same race as Bit Noisy (6) and while I think she’ll be hard pressed to beat that guy I’m confident she’ll enjoy a cosy run three back the poles and give herself a huge hope of finishing on the dais at what are big odds in today’s Herald Sun.

Alina (Race 7 no. 8) $10
This mare takes on some real big guns here but she doesn’t know how to run a bad race, particularly over the mile, so throw her in the mix here and she’ll give you a run for your dough.

The Money Races
Race 1
If this race was over the 2190m I’d be almost declaring Dentona (6) but with Master Mach Manus (2) looking a good chance of bullying his way to the front I’m happy to say one of those two horses should win. Beyond that we’ll just be hoping that Sullenberger (9) doesn’t blow us out and we get some value in our tricks.

2,6/ 1,2,6,7,9/ 1,2,6,7,9. $48 gets 200%
2,6/ 1,2,6,7,9/ 5,8,10. $12 gets 50%

Race 7
This looks a super betting race where class should really come to the fore. Almost El Eagle (11) is first-up from a break but he possesses the kind of lethal point-to-point speed which should see him win here or finish second at very worst. Either way we should get some good folding so long as the other class runners here join him on the podium.

11/ 5,6,8,9/ 5,6,8,9. $60 gets 500%
5,6,8,9/ 11/ 5,6,8,9. $40 gets 333.33%

The Quads (x4 for $100)
12/ 6/ 11/ 2,3,4,5,9. $20 gets 400%
12/ 6/ 5,6,8,9/ 2,3,4,5,9. $20 gets 100%
12/ 1,2,3,8,9,10/ 11/ 2,3,4,5,9. $30 gets 100%
5,7,8,10,11,13/ 6/ 11/ 2,3,4,5,9. $30 gets 100%

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Horsham

The Game Plan for Horsham – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bet ($50 Win)
Vivant (Race 4 no.9) $3.60
It’s always hard best-betting a horse in a race where there are a few unknowns however I think this guy could be a pretty nice horse in the making. He had just one run as a 2YO and didn’t have much go his way but upon his return he has finished a close third behind Blazing Courage when having to sit parked followed by a length second to the sprint-laning Vikenti when he was forced to cut the breeze three wide solo inside the last lap.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
The Kimura (Race 5 no.11) $6
It’s hard to fathom seeing $6 about a horse which last starts sat parked in a 1:54.8 mile rate at Melton and was just 14 metres off the smart Tandias Bromac. He got the upper hand on the leader there and despite finishing sixth was a pretty big run. Prior to that he was a winner twice around the tight-turning Charlton circuit so he is in terrific form and the horse to beat for mine.

The Money Race
Race 3 ($42 worth of Flexi Trifectas)

Most punters would be turned off by a standing start trot race but this one excites me just a little bit. I think Ole Sun (5) is pretty promising and he did everything right on debut so provided he progresses forward he will again be one of the leading hopes however don’t underrate Redy To Race (10) who is honest and consistent, he just got edged out by Ballan Road last time but three and four starts back he notched up a couple of handy wins around the Ballarat track. Outside of those I think there are five key hopes to run in the minor money so we are going to play the following combinations.

5,10/5,10/6,7,11,12.  $16 gets 200%
5,10/6,7,11,12/5,10. $8 gets 100%
5,10/6,7,11,12/6,7,11,12. $18 gets 75%

Quaddies (x5 for $110)
1,11/6,7/1/5. $32 gets 800%
1,11/6,7/2,3,5,6,7,12/5. $24 gets 100%
1,11/1,2,3,4,8/1/5. $20 gets 200%
1,11/1,2,3,4,8/2,3,5,6,7,12/5. $30 gets 50%
1,11/6,7/1/2,8. $4 gets 50%

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ Mildura

The Game Plan for Mildura – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bet ($50 win)
Strawberry Heart (Race 3 No.10) $3.20
This little pacer might only be a winner of 1 from 17 but he is in ripping form at the minute. His win did come over Soho Jagger (6) who he admittedly had the barrier advantage over there, but in saying that he just doesn’t run a bad race so if we can get something like the price offered in today’s paper, then I think he is worth a decent best as the only standout on the program.

The Money Races
Race 1 ($35 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
This race looks ripe for the picking with Cenosilocophobia (4) first up for Shayne Cramp. He is untrialled but had pretty good form around the Geelong and Ballarat regions and on precedent; you can expect him to improve. Isajet (5) looks the obvious danger while Larwood (1) and Modernize (3) are the other key chances so we are going to play the following.

4/5/1,3. $18 gets 900%
4/1,3/5. $10 gets 500%
4/1,3/1,3.$4 gets 100%
4/1,3,5/7,9. $3 gets 50%

Race 5 ($35 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
In a race where we see the promising Givesirabone (2) return to the track, I’m confident there are really only three winning chances complemented by Armbro Speedstar (8) the border-hopper and Cyclone Mach (4) so I’ve put together three trifectas which should hopefully yield the profit if that trio dominate the race.

Box Trifecta 2,4,8. $18 gets 300%
2,4,8/2,4,8/1,5,6. $9 gets 50%
2,4,8/1,5,6/2,4,8. $8 gets 44.44%

Quaddies (x4 worth $90)
2,4,8/6/9/5,8. $30 gets 500%
2,4,8/6/9/1,2,6. $18 gets 200%
2,4,8/1,2,5,7/9/5,8. $24 gets 100%
2,4,8/1,2,5,7/9/1,2,6. $18 gets 50%

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Maryborough

The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($40 win)
Union Belle (Race 6 No.6) $3
This mare ran in a much stronger race last time and although Stormed Out (8) ran past her late, he pulled out of the one by one to have the last crack while she was three wide for the last lap. Three starts ago she defeated Lierre Noir before going down to Easy Lightning and Wheatsheaf Avaball so while today’s assignment isn’t easy from the wide barrier, I think she has the class to overcome it.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Wolfpack (Race 7 No.9) $8
Despite being beaten by 14 metres last start, that was behind Brite Spark Lombo who looks pretty smart and this guy worked to sit parked before battling on bravely in the straight for second. He just edged out the third placed runner but there was a big gap back to fourth there and prior to that he put in two pretty handy runs back from a spell at Shepparton including a win and a second so he looks over the odds today with the running line draw.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $15 place)
Beachyouthere (Race 3 No.5) $51
This fella might be winless from eight starts but his four runs since returning from a three year stint on the sidelines. He has been good in each and although beaten a fair way, was in a much stronger race last time. We won’t be breaking the bank but given he should be back to full race fitness, he can run into a place for sure in an even race.

The Money Race
Race 1 ($30 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)
This looks a terrific opportunity for us to make some coin because Phil Monty (6) looked pretty promising in New Zealand at a lower level and since transferring across the ditch he is a trial winner for Lance Justice so must be the one to beat. If things pan out early expect It Is Ike (3) to be first down to the pegs and with Wake Up Call (1) likely to be three pegging and a little underrated, I think we can play the following combinations to success.

6/1,3/1,3. $18 gets 900%
6/1,3/5,8. $8 gets 200%
6/5,8/1,3. $4 gets 100%

Quaddie (x5 worth $110)
10/6/3,6,9,10,12,13/2,8,9. $31 gets 172%
10/6/3,6,9,10,12,13/4,6. $16 gets 133%
4,9,12/6/3,6,9,10,12,13/2,8,9. $27 gets 50%
4,9,12/6/3,6,9,10,12,13/4,6. $18 gets 50%
10/5,8/3,6,9,10,12,13/2,8,9. $18 gets 50%

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Good Form Preview - Tuesday @ Geelong

The Game Plan for Geelong – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
We’re back at Beckley Park tonight and while it is a tricky meeting, there are a number of runners I think should win with even luck and a whole heap more that can provide us with some genuine Each way value at odds. I’ve also found a sweet little Money race which could yield us a pretty handy profit and four Quads which encompass three of our Best Bets.

Best Bets/ Formula 3 ($60 gets 15 units)
Liston (Race 3 no. 1) $1.40
The only question mark for this bloke here is that he’s first-up for a new camp but Marnie Bibby usually does a pretty good job with her horses and if he holds his recent form this bloke should lead them around and skip away late for a  pretty easy success.

Live In Doubt (Race 5 no. 2) $2.60
I’ve got a huge amount of time for this 3YO pacer. He has gates speed, late speed and a healthy competitive instinct and after trialling three times in preparation for this first-up tilt he should either lead this lot outright or find the front off fellow fast beginner Tallulah Bay (3) and prove very difficult to roll either way.

Crusader Acey (Race 6 no. 6) $2.80
This guy was easily the more impressive of two heat winners for this pseudo-Hotshot series and to be honest it’s a massive surprise that he is not popular elect in today’s Herald Sun. The draw is awkward but I think he’ll still prove too nippy late.

Goodtime Marjie (Race 7 no. 1) $1.50
This big mare can do a couple of things wrong but she is blessed with any amount of talent. I think there’s a great chance she’ll hold the top and win from there but even if she gets crossed at the start I think she can work back off the inside and still get the cash.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Raylan Gibbins (Race 8 no. 11) $6
This bloke is blessed with plenty of natural talent and in a race where there are question marks over a few of them he looks capable of overcoming the extreme second line draw.

Best Roughies ($10 Win x $20 Place)
Caledonian Breeze (Race 2 no. 1) $12 & Argyle Melody (Race 2 no. 9) $12
These two fought out the finish of a similar race to this @ Melton back on April2 and neither has disgraced themselves in sour runs since apiece. They are not the most talented trotters engaged but they are very professional and both have a super chance of finishing on the dais.

Reeds May (Race 6 no. 5) $17
This guy is no superstar but it’s rare you see a heat winner enter a final of the same series paying $17. The key for him is that he is the fastest beginner engaged and if he can zoom straight to the front without spending too much petrol then he only has to keep running for 1140m tonight.

The Money Race – Race 3 (First 4’s for $80)
As mentioned earlier I very confident Liston (1) will lead and win here and with Luv Tha Aces Lombo (5) racing well under the care of Dean Braun and Pacific Soul (8) ideally drawn behind the favourite both more than likely to figure in First 4’s.

1/ 5,8/ 5,8/ Field. $60 gets 750%
1/ 5,8/ Field/ 5,8. $20 gets 250%

The Quads (x4 for $120)
2,3,11/ 6/ 1/ 1,3,4,5,7,11. $45 gets 250%
2,3,11/ 6/ 2,3,5/ 1,3,4,5,7,11. $27 gets 50%
2,3,11/ 2,4,5,11/ 1/ 1,3,4,5,7,11. $36 gets 50%
1,4,5,12/ 6/ 1/ 1,3,4,5,7,11. $12 gets 50%

Monday, May 26, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Warragul

The Game Plan for Warragul – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Well, I tried to live off the winnings from Barynya in the Victoria Oaks, but sadly, the well is now dry so I’ve decided to return to the Good Form team! Seriously, it’s fantastic to be back but I do wish I’d stumbled into a slightly easier meeting than today’s Warragul card which is jam packed full of tough, tricky races. Now that I’ve had my little sook the good news is I still think we can make some folding from the card by attacking 1 Best Bet, 1 Best Value and 1 Best Roughie plus a trio of Quads for $100.

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Scruffy Major (Race 3 no. 6) $2
Small fields are often fraught with danger as tempo can play a race-defining role but when you have the kind of lethal speed the above pacer does when he is on song, then it really shouldn’t matter. Be warned that he is a hit-and-miss proposition but after ripping home in 56-secs to win a recent trial at this track he can go forward or back and be too good either way.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Walky Talky (Race 5 no. 8) $6
I’ve always had a fair bit of time for this comeback kid and to my eye he gets things made to order tonight. Blessed with a very good turn of foot when right he looks a great chance of lobbing the gun trail behind likely leader The Smirker (1) here and having trialled encouragingly for tonight’s first-up assignment I give him a super hope of dashing by his rivals in the lane.

Best Roughie ($10 x $20)
Real Knucky (Race 4 no. 8) $14
He’s no superstar and there are only two place dividends on offer here but I just can’t ignore the $14 on offer about a horse I think will be better placed with a sit in a field lacking much genuine class. No guarantees but he’s worth a little flutter.

The Quads (x3)
1,2,7,8/ 2,3,7,10/ 1,2,4/ 4,7,9. $48 gets 33.33%
1,2,7,8/ 2,3,7,10/ 1,2,4/ 2,3,10. $28 gets 19.44%
1,2,7,8/ 6,8,9/  1,2,4/  4,7,9. $24 gets 16.67%