Thursday, May 15, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Maryborough

The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($35 Win)
Aldebaran Southland (Race 1 No.8) $1.80
We’re kicking things off early here but I think it will be well worth it with Aldebaran Southland (8), his only defeat in three starts came when locking wheels and galloping however that day the winner (Glenferrie Dash) was probably going to outsprint him regardless. In saying that, his two wins either side of that run have dominant and in the mould of a nice little trotter so with no other horses on the second row, I can see him working to the chair and outclassing them today.

Death Defying (Race 6 No.4) $3.50
The best bets are going to double up on the trotters here with Death Defying (4) the other one I’m pretty keen to back. She has been well beaten behind Aleppo Midas, Spidergirl and Shes An Image of late but her run in the Breed For Speed Gold Final was terrific four starts back. Maidstone Miss (5) has plenty of ability but on the score of manners and the fact that I think she can be first to the pegs; this girl should be very hard to beat.  

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
En Aye Jay (Race 3 No.2) $6
This guy was outclassed last time behind Tandias Bromac and Glenferrie Shuffle but if we forgive him that run, his form prior was very solid. Runs behind Fuji Fred, Jack Kelly and Ideal Majority all bode well for this sort of class so if he can enjoy a nice trip in transit, he is one of the best value bets for the day.

Endorsement (Race 7 No.10) $3.80
It’s hard to best bet a horse off 20 metres in a Standing Start race so we will play it safe with this guy and have a little each way and hope he drifts to something like $5. He has won two of his last three in better races behind the mobile and despite this being his first effort behind the strands, he has trialled well at Bendigo in preparation for this.

The Money Race
Race 5 ($45 worth of Flexi First 4’s)
Quite simply this race looks just a little bit easier to sort out with the scratching of likely favourite Chilli Palmer (1). Amajorjo has the speed to lead them comfortably here and given he can get his own way in front, should be near-on impossible to roll. In saying that, Magical Telf (4) was huge in the Bold David FFA and must rate a knockout hope. Either Villagem (5) or Lovable Larrikin (6) can run third but I favour the latter with a more dynamic turn of foot so we will play the following First 4’s.

3/4/6/5 $25 gets 2500%
4/3/6/5. $15 gets 1500%
3/4/5/6. $5 gets 500$

Quaddies (x4 worth $125)
2,6,8/3,4/4,5,8/1,3,6,8,10. $45 gets 50%
2,6,8/3,4/1,9/1,3,6,8,10. $30 gets 50%
4,7/3,4/4,5,8/1,3,6,8,10. $30 gets 50%
4,7/3,4/1,9/1,3,6,8,10. $20 gets 50%

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