Thursday, August 7, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Cobram

The Game Plan for Cobram – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($40 win)
Smiling High (Race 3 No.1) $2.70
This girl was terrific on debut at Menangle for the McCarthy’s before coming to Victoria for David Aiken and while she hasn’t set the world on fire, things haven’t really gone her way in much stronger races. She’s never really been tested for gate speed but I’m banking on her being able to kick up and hold a forward position and from there she should be a class above her rivals today.

Illawong Fantasia (Race 7 No.2) $3
The heats into final here have created the almost perfect storm for Illawong Fantasia (2). She was first-up when spearing to the lead then overrun by only No Tomorrow (12) in her heat but we must take into account that the latter horse was given a lovely trail in transit. Today, Illawong Fantasia (2) will not only be fitter, but is again drawn to lead while No Tomorrow (12) won’t have the luxury of being on her back.

Best Value ($20 win)
Earth Angel (Race 4 No.1) $3.50
We won’t be splashing out here but Earth Angel (1) has things to suit for the first time in a long lime and while she has to take on the blisteringly quick Almost El Eagle (6) she is going to have the right run to give her a serious chance. Most importantly I think we will get a little better than the $3.50 and if we do, she is worth a small bet in the hope that she returns to her best.

The Money Race
Race 1 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas)                           
Lombo Medlyn Miss (4) may have mixed form on paper but quite simply, she is one of two horses here who have an almost immeasurable class edge on their rivals. She should shoot to the front early and from there be tough to beat however Melisandre (7) returns from a spell and was highly touted in her first prep, starting favourite over Padrisimo in the Premier Stakes before galloping so if we anchor those two I think we can land a skinny but fruitful dividend.

4,7/4,7/2,3,6. $36 gets 600%
4,7/2,3,6/4,7. $9 gets 150%
4,7/4,7/1,8. $5 gets 125%

Quaddies (x4 worth $110)
1,3,8/2,4,5/2,12/3,5,8,12,13. $45 gets 50%
1,3,8/3,6,7/2,12/3,5,8,12,13. $22.50 gets 25%
2,5,6,9/2,4,5/2,12/3,5,8,12,13. $23.50 gets 19.58%
2,5,6,9/3,6,7/2,12/3,5,8,12,13. $20 gets 16.66%

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